| No.4
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2023年6月22日(木) 16:20-17:50 文科系総合研究棟 第21演習室 言語: 日本語 |
| Title:
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The Time Trend and Lifecycle Profiles of Consumption (joint work with Sagiri Kitao) 明治大学 山田 知明 氏 |
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Abstract: This paper analyzes the time trend of household consumption in Japan between 1981 and 2020,
using microdata from the Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES). We examine how the trends in
the levels,shares, and growth of consumption vary across categories of consumption, items and age
groups, and assess changes in consumption inequality over time. Our analysis shows that consumption
inequality mildly increased, driven primarily by the trend of service consumption. Additionally, we estimate
the life-cycle profiles of consumption and find that the age component of total consumption follows a
standard hump-shaped pattern, but varies significantly across goods and service categories and item
groups. Finally, using the estimated age profiles of different consumption items, we project how aggregate
consumption and its composition may evolve as Japan's population ages in the coming decades. |
| No.7
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2023年7月27日(木) 16:20-17:50 文科系総合研究棟 第21演習室 言語: 日本語 |
| Title:
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Disaster Exposure, Present Bias, and Mental Health: Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake 東京大学 澤田 康幸 氏 |
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Abstract: We investigate the relationships between disaster exposure, individual present bias,
and mental health, adopting sui generis microdata from two different communities hit by the
Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011. Our findings show that sudden impoverishment due to
disaster exposure makes individuals more present-biased, leading to depression. We also find a
possible reverse causality from disaster-caused depression to present bias, especially for one of
the communities which was exposed to the “triple disaster” of the earthquake, the tsunami, and
radioactive contamination due to a nuclear power plant failure, suggesting a psychological
poverty trap triggered by compounded disasters. Our study sheds light on possible interventions,
whether after a natural disaster, technological hazard, or pandemic, by providing commitment
devices and direct psychotherapy-like support. |
| No.8
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2023年10月5日(木) 16:20-17:50 文科系総合研究棟 第21演習室+オンライン |
| Title:
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On the Trend of Technology, Family Formation and Women's Time Allocations 東京大学 北尾 早霧 氏 |
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Abstract
:
We develop a model that explains the secular trend of fertility, marriage, education and women’stime allocations in Japan over the last fifty years. We use the model to quantify the effects of technologicaldevelopment and the costs associated with raising children on the time trends surrounding families. We letfactor-biased technological progress determine the paths of gender and skill-specific wages, whileallowing individuals to make decisions regarding family formation and allocation of time to market work,home production, leisure, and childcare. We find that skill-biased technological change contributes to arise in fertility rates and investment in education. The growth of gender-biased technology has the oppositeeffect on the number of children, but increases educational attainment. Additionally, it leads to a decline inthe marriage rate and an increase in married women’s work hours. Neutral technological growth increasesfertility, reduces education investment, and allows women to shift time from market work to childcare. Arise in the financial and time costs of basic childcare reduces fertility rates but increases skill investment,while a rise in education costs has the opposite effect. |
| No.9
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2023年10月19日 (木) 16:20-17:50 第21演習室 (10F, New Humanities Building) |
| Title:
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A Rise of New Elites: The Role of Middle Schools in Early Development. 一橋大学 田中 万理 氏 |
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Abstract: Do educational institutions change the selection of people who reach top positions in private and
public sectors? We examine the role of secondary education in elite formation in the context of a country's
early development stage when only a small fraction of the population proceeds to post-elementary
education. In late 19th century Japan, even after the country transitioned from a hereditary society to
meritocracy, a small group of nobles (i.e., former samurai families) over-represented the share of elites in
both private and public sectors as well as the share of secondary school graduates. We examine how the
rapid construction of secondary schools happened during this period altered the probability of commoners
and nobles becoming elites. To identify the causal impact, we use cohort-specific discontinuities in access
to the neighborhood school. Our empirical results show that constructing a secondary school led to a
significant increase in high-income business managers and elite professionals from commoner families but
not from noble families, suggesting a critical role of secondary schools in forming new elites. |
| No.10
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2023年10月26日(木) 14:40-17:50 第21演習室 (10F, New Humanities Building) |
| 1 Title:
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Nightless City: Impacts of Policymakers’ Questions on Overtime Work of Government Officials. 早稲田大学 片山 宗親 氏 Munechika Katayama (Waseda University) |
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Abstract: We quantify the impact of unexpectedly assigned tasks on overtime work in the context of
Japanese government officials. Data on overtime work are typically less reliable. We overcome this
problem by using mobile phone location data, which enables us to precisely measure the nighttime
population in the government-office district in Tokyo at an hourly frequency. Exploiting the exogenous
nature of task arrivals, we estimate impacts on overtime work. We find that, in response to a newly
assigned task, overtime work initially decreases and then increases persistently. Institutional changes to
relax the time constraint and improve the working environment of government officials play a part in
mitigating overtime work, but persistent increases in overtime work remain. We provide a simple model of
optimal work allocation and show that distortion in intertemporal task allocation can account for the
observed responses. |
| 2 Title:
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Non-Exponential Growth Theory 大阪大学 堀井 亮 氏 Ryo Horii (Osaka University) |
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Abstract:
The per capita real GDP growth rate has been remarkably stable for many decades in mostdeveloped countries. To explain the balanced growth, however, existing endogenous growth theoriestypically need to assume a knife-edge degree of externality, which is not yet confirmed by micro-levelobservations. We argue that this puzzle occurs because sustained growth has been commonly understoodas exponential growth either in the quantity, quality, or variety of outputs, which is hard to explain withoutstrong assumptions. By explicitly considering the movements of price and quantity of individual goods aftertheir introduction, this paper shows that the observed stability of the real GDP growth rate can beexplained under much weaker conditions without relying on the exponential growth of any variable. Inparticular, we develop an endogenous growth theory where a constant number (not exponentially many) ofnew goods are introduced per unit of time. Even without externality, a constant GDP growth rate ismaintained when the expenditure for older goods shrinks over time so as not to inhibit the expenditureshare given on newer goods. |
| DSSR
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細谷賞受賞講演会 Estimation of sparsity-induced weak factor models 第5回細谷賞受賞者 一橋大学 植松 良公 氏 |
| No.11
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2023年11月30日（木） 16:20-17:50 文科系総合研究棟 第21演習室 (10F, New Humanities Building) |
| Title:
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The Effects of Flipped Classroom in Higher Education on Learning Outcomes and Efforts: A Randomized Experiment in the Introductory Economics Course
立命館大学 関 麻衣 氏 Mai Seki (Ritsumeikan University) |
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Abstract: The flipped classroom literally "flips" the timing of the traditional teaching style, with students receiving a video lecture before class and working on exercises during class. We estimate the effects of flipped classroom on the learning outcomes of college students in an introductory economics course utilizing random assignment of students to multiple classes. This is a joint work with Prof. Yasukazu Ichino and Prof. Toru Kawaii. In this presentation, we will mainly discuss our preliminary findings based on the regression analysis using the 2022 and 2023 data, including mediation analysis and quantile regressions. We find a positive and significant effects of the flipped classroom with some variations in the effects by students’ characteristics. Additionally, I will briefly touch upon the findings from a working paper with Prof. YasukazuIchino, “The Effects of in-Person and Online Flipped Classrooms During the COVID-19 Pandemic” using the 2021 data. This 2021 data is collected in the context of a state of emergency, which led to a sudden switch of face-to-face classes to online classes during the semester. Based on the 2021 data analysis, we find suggestive evidence that the flipped classroom has a negative impact on students’ learning outcomes in the in-person classroom format, but a positive impact in the online classroom format. The major difference in the flipped classrooms setting from 2021 to 2022/2023 is that, in the 2022/2023 experiments, student groups are randomly assigned for the in-class discussions. We believe that proper arrangement of group discussions is the key to successful implementation of flipped classrooms. |
| No.12
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2023年12月14日 (木) 16:20-17:50 第21演習室 (10F, New Humanities Building) |
| Title:
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Unequal Wage Cyclicality: Evidence, Theory, and Implications for Labor Market Volatility 一橋大学 寺本 和弘 氏 Kazuhiro Teramoto (Hitotsubashi University) |
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Abstract: During expansions, wage increases tend to disproportionately benefit higher-paid workers, while
the wages of middle- and lower-paid workers tend to stagnate. This study provides micro evidence of the
absence of wage trickle down and develops a novel search-and-matching model to explain why lowerwage
jobs exhibit weaker wage cyclicality. The model features procyclical job-ladder and vacancy-chain
effects result-ing from on-the-job search and replacement hiring. Specifically, as expansion leads to
increased opportunities to replace poorly-matched employees with better-matched candidates, the value of
employers’ outside option increases, which in turn suppresses wage increases. Furthermore, these
features lead to greater cyclical fluctuations in labor market flows and unemployment. The calibrated
model can account for about three-fourths of the observed unemployment volatility. |
| No.14
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2024年1月4日(木) 16:20-17:50 第21演習室 (10F, New Humanities Building) |
| Title:
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Stuck in a Marriage: The Impact of Income Shocks on Divorce and Intra-Household Allocation (joint work with Hannah Paule-Paludkiewicz, Hitoshi Tsujiyama, and Midori Wakabayashi) 東京都立大学 暮石 渉 氏 Wataru Kureishi (Tokyo Metropolitan University) |
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Abstract: This paper studies the impact of income shocks on divorce and intra-household allocation. Weexploit a natural-experimental earthquake shock that reduced income, especially for female workers. Usinglarge-scale, long-term panel data, we find that couples more affected by the shock are less likely todivorce. We present extensive evidence that this reduction in the probability of divorce is driven by the factthat the shock to female income reduces the value of divorce for wives in dual-earner couples, but notmuch the value of marriage thanks to family insurance. We build a collective household model with limitedcommitment to understand the economic forces behind the empirical results. We then establish testableimplications of the theory, including an intra-household reallocation of resources from wives to husbandswhen they avoid divorce. We provide novel empirical evidence in support, using unique data withcomprehensive information on personal consumption and individual time use within households. |
| No.16
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2024/2/8(Thursday) 16:20-17:50 第21演習室 (10F, New Humanities Building) |
| Title:
|
Pricing Implication of Centrality in an OTC derivative Market: An Empirical Analysis Using Transaction-Level CDS Data
(Kouhei Maehashi, Daisuke Miyakawa, and Kana Sasamoto) 早稲田大学 宮川 大介 氏 Daisuke Miyakawa (Waseda University) |
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Abstract: Using the transaction-level records accounting for the universe of the credit default swap (CDS) contracts in Japan, we document whether and how (if any) the relative centrality of sellers to buyers affects CDS price. First, our panel estimation, which comprehensively controls for the pricing factors (e.g., entity’s risk, counter-party risk, notional, and maturity) considered in practice, suggests that CDS price becomes higher as the relative centrality of sellers to buyers becomes higher. Second, this centrality premium is observed mainly in the market with higher credit risk and further increases when the buyers attempt to unwind their short position made in the past. Third, deeper trade relations between sellers and buyers result in centrality discount (premium) in the market with higher (lower) credit risk. These results suggest the tradeoff between the cost of maintaining relationship in good periods and the benefit of securing cheap access to CDS in bad periods. Peripheral buyers without such trade relations face higher CDS price in distressed periods. |
| No.17
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2024/2/22 (Thursday) 16:20-17:50 Location: 4階大会議室 (Conference Room, 4F Econ Building) |
| Title:
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Optimal Progressive Income Taxation and Endogenous Marriage and Divorce 大阪大学 加藤 明久 氏 Akihisa Kato (Osaka University) |
|
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Abstract: The U.S. income tax system penalizes married couples with similar earnings and subsidizes specialization between spouses in such couples. To see how the progressive income tax impacts household formation and intra-household allocations, we construct a life-cycle model to study how changes in tax policy affect labor supply --- especially those of secondary earners in married households --- and household formation/dissolution. In the model, agents differ in realized wage and fertility and face the U.S. income tax code, and agents make household formation and allocation decisions as well as allocation decisions. Married households make allocation decisions jointly without being able to commit future arrangements. With this model, we find the sensitivity of the marriage patterns to the tax code: changing tax unit from a household to an individual increases the number of married households by 3%, mainly via a reduction of the marriage age coming from reduced rewards to search for advantageous tax partners. We also consider the same policy reform but abstracting the responses of marriage/divorce decisions and intra-household sharing rules to show how those are quantitatively important. We then use the model to compute the optimal income tax progressivity that maximizes welfare under two scenarios; (i) married couples filing jointly and (ii) individual taxation. In Scenario (i), the optimal progressivity for married couples is lower. At the same time, that of singles is slightly higher than the current U.S. tax code. In comparison, the optimal progressivity in Scenario (ii) is much higher than the current U.S. single income tax schedule. |
