東 北大学現代経済学研究会
2006年度記録
| 日時 | 4月15日 （土） 15:30-17:00 |
| 場所 | 経済学研究科第１演習室 (経済学部研究棟１階) |
| 報告者 | 福 田 慎一 氏 （東京 大学大 学院経済学 研究科教授） |
| 論題 |
非上場企業におけるコーポレート・ガバナンス （粕谷宗久・中島上智と共著） |
| 要旨
|
本稿では、デフレ下の日本経済における非上場企業のパフォーマン スの決 定要因を、ガバナンス構造に注目して考察した。一般に、中堅・中小の非上場企業は、 潜在的な成長可能性が高い企業が多い反面、上場企業と比べてその所有構造が特殊な企業が多い。われわれの対象とした非上場企業でも、特定の個人株主や親会 社の持ち株比率が極めて高い企業や、従業員持ち株比率が大きい企業など、上場企業では見られない所有構造の企業が数多く存在している。非上場企業のトービ ンのq（営業利益の割引現在価値）の決定要因を推計した場合、非上場企業の所有構造は、財務データなど標準的な財務変数に加えて、各非上場企業のパフォー マンスに対して有意な影響を及ぼすことが明らかになった。ただし、その影響は、企業の業績が良い場合と悪い場合で、全く異なっていた。特に、特定の個人株 主や親会社の持ち株比率の上昇は、業績が良い企業ではプラスに働いた反面、業績が悪化した企業では逆にマイナスに働いていた。本稿の結果は、伝統的にうま く機能していた日本の非上場企業のガバナンス構造が、デフレ下の日本経済では逆にその業績を大きく低迷させた可能性を示唆するものである。（論文はこのページから ダウンロードできます） |
| 日時 |
4月27日(木）
14:40-17:50 （第１報告：14:40-16:10、第２報告：
16:20-17:50） |
| 場所 |
経済学研究科第２１演習室 （文科系総合研究棟１０階） |
| 報告者１ |
北 原 稔 氏 （日本学術振興会PD） |
| 論題 |
Efficiency
Versus Economy of Time in Multi-Unit Descending Auction: The Role of
"Mari" at Flower Markets in Japan (with
Ryo Ogawa) |
| 要旨 |
At some wholesale flower markets
in Japan, a modified version of the Dutch flower auction is adopted as
the selling procedure. In the usual rule of sequential descending
auctions where several identical items are sold, (i) the price-clock
starts from a sufficiently high price and goes down until one of the
buyers stops it, (ii) the buyer who stopped the clock wins the good at
the price on the clock, and then (iii) if there are still remaining
units for sale, the auction goes back to step (i). In the modified rule
in Japanese flower markets, one additional stage (called "mari") is
interposed between (ii) and (iii). In such "mari"-stages, other buyers
can apply to purchasing the good at the same price being paid by the
winner in step (ii). In this paper, we investigate the role of "mari"
in Japanese flower markets. We show that the modified rule with "mari"
extensively speeds up the market procedure at the cost of sufficiently
small loss of efficiency. |
| 報告者２ |
松村 敏弘 氏 （東京大学社会科学研究所助教授） |
| 論題 |
How Many
Firms Should Be Leaders?: Beneficial Concentration
Revisited (with Hiroaki Ino) |
| 要旨
|
We investigate the relationship
between Herfindahl-Hirschman
Index (HHI) and welfare. First, we discuss the model with m leaders and
N-m followers compete. Daughety (1990) finds that, under linear demand
and constant marginal costs, the Stackelberg model (m \in (0,N)) yields
large welfare and HHI than the Cournot model (m=0 or m=N). In other
words, he shows that beneficial concentration takes place. We find that
beneficial concentration always takes place when m is sufficiently
large under general cost and demand functions, but it is not always
true when m is small. Next, we consider free entries of followers. We
find that beneficial concentration always takes place regardless of m. |
| 日時 |
5月18日（木） 16:20-17:50 |
| 場所 |
経済学研究科第２１演習室 （文科系総合研究棟１０階） |
| 報告者 |
稲葉 圭一郎 氏 （日本銀行金融機構局） |
| 論題 |
産業別経営安定度の相関について （片桐満、服部正純と共著） |
| 要旨
|
ローンポートフォリ
オや社債ポートフォリオの信用リスクは、倒産率の産業間相関に左右される。本研究は、財務省「法人企業統計調査」を利用して、Z
スコアと呼ばれる経営安定度指標を作成した上で、パネルデータ分析や時系列分析等の手法によって、産業間相関の特性を定量的に分析している。主要な分析結
果は以下のとおり。（１）個別産業の経営安定度は、他の産業の経営安定度とかなりの程度で順相関関係にある。（２）こうした順相関関係は、ある産業と他の
産業との
間の直接的な関係のみならず、それらがマクロ経済の変動に同じように反応することから生じている。（３）同一産業内の大・中・小企業間における経営安定度
の相
関は産業毎にかなり異なる。（４）これらの関係は、時間を通じて一定ではなく、その度合はバブル期前よりもバブル後の方が強い。こうした結果は、ローン
ポート
フォリオを管理する際や、社債ポートフォリオを作成する際、さらにはわが国産業構造を考察する上で、示唆に富むものと期待できる。 |
| 日時 |
6
月1日(木) 16:20-17:50 |
| 場所 |
経済学研究科第２１演習室 （文科系総合研究棟１０階） |
| 報告者 |
吉田 あつし 氏 （筑波大学大学院システム情報工学研究科教授） |
| 論題 |
How Does a
Physician Change the Quantity of Medical Services Associated With the
Different Copayment Schemes? (with
Shingo Takagi) |
| 要旨
|
In this paper we investigate how
a physician changes the quantity of medical services to patients
responding to the reform of the copayment scheme for the elderly from
the fixed- to the proportional-copayment system. We propose a
physician-patient interaction model where a physician decides the
quantity of medical services first and then a patient decides the
number of visits. We also examine empirically whether or not physicians
change their quantities of medical services associated with the
copayment scheme, and if so, in what kind of services a physician
changes the quantities. We find that a physician provides more services
to patients whose copayment would decrease if the services were the
same as before the reform and less to patients whose copayment would
increase by means of changing the quantities of laboratory test and/or
diagnostic imaging, which the theoretical model can prospects. |
| 日時 |
6月5日（月） 14:40-16:10 |
| 場所 |
経済学研究科第401演習室 （文科系総合研究棟４階） |
| 報告者 |
橘 永久 氏
（神戸大学大学院国際協力研究科助教授） |
| 論題 |
Do
Community Management and Co-management Improve Natural Forest
Condition?: A Case of the Middle Hills in Nepal (with Sunit Adhikari) |
| 要旨
|
Does
community management improve the condition of local natural resources?
Do interventions and support by official agencies impair or enhance the
functions of voluntary communal management? With 102 randomly-sampled
natural forests in the Middle Hills of Nepal, we address these
questions. Our data contain the cases of government management,
community management, and co-management of local forests. Co-management
is the management by the user groups receiving official support from
local forest agencies. Forest condition was evaluated by the
aerial-photo interpretation and forest inventory. We find that,
controlling for the possible self-selection into official support,
co-management system has contributed to improve tree regeneration.
However, community management without any external support can be also
effective. Our analysis indicates that such management reduced the
incidences of forest fire. |
| 日時 |
6
月10日(土) 15:30-17:00 |
| 場所 |
経済学研究科第１演習室 （経済学部研究棟１階） |
| 報告者 |
小川 英治 氏 （一橋大学大学院商学研究科教授） |
| 論題 |
Stabilization
of Effective Exchange Rates under Common Currency Basket Systems (with Junko Shimizu) |
| 要旨
|
We investigate how much
stabilization effects a common currency basket peg system would have on
effective exchange rates of East Asian currencies in this paper. We
suppose an AMU (Asian Monetary Unit), which is a weighted average of
ASEAN10 plus 3 (Japan, China, and Korea) currencies, as a common
currency basket, to investigate the stabilization effects of an AMU peg
system on East Asian currencies. We compare our analytical results with
stabilization effects of a common G3 currency basket (the US dollar,
the Japanese yen, and the euro) peg system, which were shown in
Williamson (2005). We obtained the following results: first, the AMU
peg system is more effective in reducing fluctuations of the effective
exchange rates of East Asian currencies as a number of countries
adopted the AMU peg system increases in East Asia. Second, the AMU peg
system stabilizes the effective exchange rates more effectively for
Indonesia, the Philippines, South Korea, and Thailand than a common G3
currency basket peg system. These results suggest that the AMU peg
system is effective in stabilizing home currencies for the countries
whose trade weights on Japan are relatively higher. （論文はこのページからダウンロード
できます） |
| 日時 |
6月15日（木） 16:20-17:50 |
| 場所 |
経済学研究科第２１演習室 （文科系総合研究棟１０階） |
| 報告者 |
国本 隆 氏
（Assistant Professor, McGill University） |
| 論題 |
On the Non-Robustness of Nash Implementation |
| 要旨
|
I
consider the implementation problem under complete information and
employ Nash equilibrium as a solution concept. A socially desirable
rule is given as a correspondence from the set of states to the set of
outcomes. This social choice rule is said to be implementable in Nash
equilibrium if there exists a game from such that all (pure strategy)
Nash equilibrium outcomes are socially desirable. Maskin (1999)
clarified the conditions on the social choice rules under which he
constructed a very general Nash implementing game form. This paper asks
the minimal amount of incomplete information which prevents the
Maskinian game form from being robustly implemented in Nash
equilibrium. More precisely, under some mild conditions on the social
choice rules, one can construct a canonical perturbation of the
complete information structure under which a sequence of Bayesian Nash
equilibria of the Maskinian game form supports a non-Nash equilibrium
outcome in the limit. Therefore, there is a precise sense in which the
Maskinian game form is not robust to a very small amount of incomplete
information. （論文はこのペー
ジからダウンロードできます） |
| 日時 |
7月13日（木） 16:20-17:50 |
| 場所 |
経済学研究科第２１演習室 （文科系総合研究棟１０階） |
| 報告者 |
佐藤 泰裕 氏
（名古屋大学大学院環境学研究科助教授） |
| 論題 |
Tax Competition and Public Input Provision
with Imperfect Labor Markets |
| 要旨
|
Incorporating a labor market imperfection caused by fixed wages into a tax competition model, this paper analyzes what will happen when jurisdictional governments provide public inputs to cope with regional unemployment. The results show that capital taxation has an employment externality. Public input provision is also shown to cause an employment externality by shifting the production frontier. These employment externalities induce the governments to levy tax on capital even if a head tax is available. The degree of the employment externalities is shown to vary depending on the level of fixed wage. Composition of public spending is also discussed. |
| 日時 |
7月21日（金） 15:30-17:00 |
| 場所 |
経済学研究科第２１演習室 （文科系総合研究棟１０階） |
| 報告者 |
新谷 元嗣 氏
（Assistant Professor, Vanderbilt University） |
| 論題 |
Menu Costs and Markov Inflation: A
Theoretical Revision with New Evidence (with Christian Ahlin ) |
| 要旨
|
We revisit a foundational theoretical paper in the menu cost literature, Sheshinski and Weiss (1983), one of the few to treat stochastic inflation with persistent deviations from trend. In contrast to the original finding, we find that optimal pricing in this environment entails using different (s,S) bands in high-inflation and low-inflation states of the world. The low-inflation band is strictly contained within the high-inflation band. This revised solution has very different implications from the original one. Firms are generally risk-loving, not risk-averse, with respect to inflation. An increase in the variance of inflation increases price dispersion when inflation is high and decreases price dispersion when inflation is low. On an aggregate level, this optimal pricing would lead to bunching of prices and non-neutrality of money in the setting of Caplin and Spulber (1987). To test the main finding, we construct an establishment-level dataset from the months surrounding Mexico's Tequila crisis, in 1995. In the high-inflation state, price increases are larger and establishments allow their prices to vary more widely around their respective long-run mean relative prices. Cross-establishment price dispersion is lower, but this result seems due to decreased establishment heterogeneity rather than narrower (s,S) bands. Overall, the evidence suggests that establishments employ wider (s,S) bands in the high-inflation state. （論文はこ のページからダウンロードできます） |
| 日時 |
7月31日（月） 15:00-18:00 |
| 場所 |
経済学研究科第１演習室 （経済学部研究棟１階） |
| 報告者
１ |
伊藤 隆康 氏 （新潟大学経済学部教授） |
| 論題 |
Japanese
Long Term Interest Rates――Analysis of Government Bond and Interest
Rate Swap |
| 要旨
|
This paper analyzes the relationship between Japanese
Government Bond and Interest Rate Swap. The whole sample is divided
into two sub periods. The first sub period, named Sample A, is from
January 4,1994 through February 12,1999. The second sub period, named
Sample B, is from February 15,1999 through June 30,2006. In Sample A, a
1 % increase in Japanese Government Bond yields lead to a 1 % increase
in Japanese Yen Interest Rate Swap rates in the structure of 2 year, 3
year, 4 year, 5 year , and 7 year. A 1 % increase in Japanese
Government Bond yield lead to a less than 1 % increase in Japanese Yen
Interest Rate Swap rate in 10 year. On the other hand, in Sample B, a 1
% increase in Japanese Government Bond yields lead to a more than 1 %
increase in Japanese Yen Interest Rate Swap rates in the structure of 2
year, 3 year, 4 year, 5 year, 7 year and 10 year. The market
segmentation between Japanese Government Bond and Interest Rate Swap
was observed in 10 year zone of Sample B. |
| 報告者２ |
孫 立堅 氏 （中国 復旦大学経済学部教授） |
| 論題 |
External Dependent Economy and Financial Bubbles: The Case of China's Real Estate Market |
| 要
旨
|
This
paper explores the relationship between external-dependent real economy
and real estate bubbles in China. By extending the Caballer and
Krishnamurthy's OLG model in a high debt economy (2001, 2005), we show
how foreign asset accumulation in an export-driven economy lead to
overinvestment in domestic real estate markets under fragile financial
system and managed exchange rate system. Employing monthly data of 28
Chinese provinces over the period 2004-2005, we test whether the growth
of real estate price result from capital inflows controlling other
possible factors. Our findings show that the growth of investment in
real sectors will accompany with the accumulation of foreign
assets and result in liquidity increasing in banking sector, which will
"produce" real estate bubbles no matter how different the local level
of development among the 28 provinces. |
| 日時 |
8月7日（月） 15:30-17:00 |
| 場所 |
経済学研究科第１演習室 （経済学部研究棟１階） |
| 報告者 |
木下 紀明 氏
（International Monetary Fund） |
| 論題 |
Government Debt and Long-term Interest
Rates |
| 要旨
|
This
paper examines the relationship between government debt and long-term
interest rates. A dynamic general equilibrium model that incorporates
debt nonneutrality is specified and solved, and numerical simulations
using the model are undertaken. In addition, empirical evidence using
panel data for 19 industrial countries is examined. The estimation
provides some evidence supporting the theoretical predictions: the
paper finds that the simulated and estimated interest rate effects of
government debt tend to be small. However, an increase in government
consumption and debt leads to a considerably larger effect. The paper
also argues that, although the interest rate effects of pure crowding
out may be limited, the economic impact of accumulating government debt
cannot be ignored. （論文はここからダ
ウンロードできます） |
| 日時 |
8
月24日（木） 15:00-17:00 |
| 場所 |
経済学研究科第２１演習室 （文科系総合研究棟１０階） |
| 報告者１ |
秋葉 弘哉 氏 （早稲田大学政治経済学部教授） |
| 論題 |
Monetary Union, Real Exchange Rate, and
Welfare |
| 要旨 |
This
paper considers the effects of formation or new accession to a monetary
union (MU) on itself ("ins") and the outsiders ("outs") as well. Since
a MU inherently means a "large" entity, we construct a large country
model to examine those effects in the context of economic growth. The
closed-form solution of the terms of trade enables us to derive the
plausible conclusions: (a) the terms of trade of the MU improves, (b)
the real income of "outs" falls, implying a real transfer to the MU,
and (c) the real exchange rate of the MU currency appreciates. |
| 報告者２ |
川崎 能典 氏
（統計数理研究所助教授） |
| 論題 |
金 利期間構造のノンパラメトリック推定と予測 （応 用統計計量ワークショップと共催） |
| 要旨
|
割引債や利付債のクロスセクションデータに対して、スプライン基底等に基づくノンパ
ラメトリック回帰モデル経由で金利期間構造を推定する手法は、1970年代に提案されて以降頻繁に利用されている。本講演では、これまであまり厳密な議論
がなされてこなかった平滑化パラメータの選択において、GIC型情報量規準の構築を行う。この方法は、非線形スプラインにおいても理論的に妥当性のある選
択規準を導出可能であり、その意味で瞬間フォワードレートを基底展開する場合に特に有効な方法である。後半では、ノンパラメトリック回帰の動学版として、関数データ解析の手法によるイールドカーブの推定・予測法を提案
し、模擬予測結果を報告する。この方法では、過去の利付債データを割引関数サーフェスに変換（関数化）し、関数データに関するARモデルを推定することで
予測を行う。 |
| 日時 |
10月16日(月) 16：00-18：00 |
| 場所 |
中会議室（文科系総合研究棟11階） |
| 報告者 |
Ke-young
Chu 氏 （韓国慶煕大学校教授) |
| 論題 |
A
Game-Theoretic Model of Transactions Within and Between Collectivist
Communities Without Third-Party Enforcement |
| 要旨
|
Transactions
have taken place between
members of different
communities (e.g.,
medieval inter-city trade, group lending) with no inter-community
inter-personal ties or third-party enforcement. While empirical studies
underscore the role of intra-community
interpersonalties, no
theoretical study has presented a formal model that explains an
explicit role of intra-community collectivist
values. This paper
extends the results of the existing game-theoretic models to show that
such values within
communities can provide a critical foundation for
expanded transactions between
communities. The paper discusses how some
transactions artificially have mimicked such a mechanism through
financial or contractual engineering (e.g., Korean chaebol groups,
chain stores). |
| 日時 |
10月19日（木） 16：20‐17：50 |
| 場所 |
経済学研究科第21演習室（文科系総合研究棟10階） |
| 報告者 |
大野 正智 氏 （福島大学経済経営学類助教授） |
| 論題 |
『貿易統計』を利用した契約通貨の検証−独占的競争モデルに対する2国間品目別貿易の実証−（福田慎一と共著） |
| 要
旨
|
東
アジア域内貿易において、米ドルが契約通貨として利用されているケースが多い。このことは、輸出入国双方にとって、両国間の為替レートでなく、それぞれの
対ドルレート変動が、貿易収支や物価の変動要因になることを意味する。対日貿易に限定した場合でも、ドル建て取引が行われているケースが多く、「円の国際
化」の可能性を考える上でも、貿易における契約通貨の状況とその決定要因を探ることは重要である。本文では財務省の「貿易統計（通関統計）」を利用し、韓
国からの輸入を例に商品ごとの契約通貨の状況を検証する。貿易契約通貨の決定に関する理論では、2国間貿易おける輸入国の商品市場ごとの特性に応じて、ど
の国の通貨で契約価格が決定されるかを論じている。したがって、理論的な考察を可能にする上でも、商品別に契約通貨の状況を調査する意義は大きい。一方、
2国間で商品ごとの貿易状況は、「貿易統計」において公表されている。しかし、この統計は円建てで表示されていることから、まずは、「貿易統計」から円建
て以外の契約通貨を検証する方法を提案する。そして、その結果と理論モデルとの整合性を検討する。 |
| 日時 | 11月2日（木） 16：20‐17：50 |
| 場所 | 経済学研究科第21演習室（文科系総合研究棟10階） |
| 報告者 | 堀井 亮 氏 （大阪大学大学院経済学研究科専任講師） |
| 論題 | Wants and Past Knowledge: Growth Cycles with Emerging Industries |
| 要 旨 | This paper develops a theory of endogenous growth cycles focusing on the interaction between consumers' desire to satisfy an indefinite range of wants and firms’ incentive to utilize knowledge from past production experiences. We show that firms endogenously form a number of distinguishable industries as accumulated knowledge induces them to agglomerate in the technology space. Knowledge accumulation in existing industries reduces production costs, but, as the diminishing returns from learning sets in, some firms start to adopt previously unexplored technologies so that their new goods fit consumers’ unsatisfied wants and attract large demand. Thus, sporadic emergence of new industries generates growth cycles, where both the timing and the new technology to be adopted are endogenously determined. New industries based on new technology reduce the rate of per capita GDP growth in the initial phase, but nonetheless are indispensable for sustained economic growth in the long run. （論文はこのページからダウンロードできます） |
| 日時 | 12月4日(月） 16：20−17：50 |
| 場所 | 経済学研究科第401演習室（文科系総合研究棟4階） |
| 報告者 | Bienvenido S. Cortes 氏 （Professor, Pittsburg State University, Kansas） |
| 論題 | Regional Effects of Chinese Monetary Policy |
| 要旨 | NA |
| 日時 | 2月27日(火） 15:00-16：30 |
| 場所 | 経済学研究科第21演習室（文科系総合研究棟10階） |
| 報告者１ | 吉田 浩 氏 （東北大学大学院経済学研究科助教授） |
| 論題 | Is the 2004 Pension Plan Revision a Final Answer? Evaluation using the Generational Accounts |
| 要旨 | 2004 年年金改革は、保険料スケジュールの法定とマクロ経済スライドという給付自動抑制システムを導入した。政府はこれにより、今後100年のサステナビリ ティーをもった年金と発表している。本研究では、世代会計の手法を用いてこの年金改革が将来世代に与えた影響を推計し、改革が本当にFinal Answerであるかどうかを検証する。 |
| 報告者２ | Erik Hernes 氏 (オスロ大学ログナーフリッシュ経済統計研究所所長) |
| 論題 | Pension Reform in Norway and Related Research at the Frisch Centre |
| 要旨 | 1. Brief overview of the background for the Norwegian pension reform and the main element decided so far. 2. Current research at the Frisch Centre on issues which are related to the reform. This includes both ongoing and recently started research. The idea is to provide information on what we are doing, so you can assess in which areas it will be useful to cooperate. 3. Some more detail and research results on one issue. |
| 日時 |
3月16日(金）
14:40-17:50 （第１報告：14:40-16:10、第２報告：
16:20-17:50） |
| 場所 |
経済学研究科第２１演習室 （文科系総合研究棟１０階） |
| 報告者１ |
浅野 貴央 氏 （日本学術振興会特別研究員） |
| 論題 |
Precautionary Principle and the Optimal Timing of Environmental Policy under Knightian Uncertainty |
| 要旨 |
We
consider a problem in environmental policy design by applying optimal
stopping rules. The purposes of this paper are (1) to provide an
economic foundation for the precautionary principle and the 1992 Rio
Declaration on Environment and Development, (2) to derive the optimal
timing rule that governments should adopt in order to deal with
emissions of SO_2 or CO_2 and increases in greenhouse gas
concentrations under Knightian uncertainty in continuous time, and (3)
to show that this optimal timing rule has a reservation property.
Furthermore, we analyze the effect of an increase in Knightian
uncertainty on the optimal timing of adopting some environmental policy. |
| 報告者２ |
堀 元 氏 （創価大学経済学部教授） |
| 論題 |
Nonpaternalistic Altruism and Functional Interdependence of Social Preferences |
| 要旨
|
Utility
functions embodying nonpaternalistic altruism can be regarded as being
generated through social interactions among altruistic individuals. As
such, they show an important interdependence. Assuming linear altruism,
the paper shows the following. First, there is a monotone relation
between the degrees of altruism and the similarity of different
individuals’ utility functions. Second, different individuals’ utility
functions approach a common function as the degrees of altruism
approach a limit if all the individuals are altruistically connected.
Third, pathological situations can arise if the altruistic relations
are one-directional. Fourth, theset of Pareto optimal allocations shrinks as the degrees of altruism increase. |