東 北大学現代経済学研究会

2007年度記録

第19回

日時
4月11日(水) 18:00-19:30
場所
経済学研究科第21演習室 (文科系総合研究棟10階)
報告者
陣内 了 (プリンストン大学大学院)
論題
Monetary Policy with Endogenous Inattention
要旨                                     
This paper studies monetary policy in a sticky-information model where the frequency of information updating is endogenously determined. Relative to a setting with exogenous information updating, price stability becomes more important. In a stable price environment, price setters update their plans less frequently, which makes monetary policy more effective and efficient. By demonstrating the new channel of monetary policy, this paper offers an implication on the so-called "Great Moderation" in favor of the improved policy hypothesis.(論文はここからダウンロードできます)

第20回

日時
4月19日(木) 16:20-17:50 
場所
経済学研究科第21演習室 (文科系総合研究棟10階)
報告者
神林 龍 (一橋大学経済研究所准教授)
論題
Deferred Compensation: Evidence from Employer-Employee Matched Data from Japan (with Kyoji Fukao, Daiji Kawaguchi, Hyeog Ug Kwon, Young Gak Kim, and Izumi Yokoyama)
要旨                                                                             
Wage increases, along with job tenure, are one of the most robust empirical regularities found in labor economics. Several theories explain these empirical regularities, and such theories offer sharp empirical predictions for the relation between productivity-tenure and wage-tenure profiles. The human capital model, with cost and benefit sharing between workers and employers, predicts a steeper productivity-tenure profile than wage-tenure profile. The matching quality model predicts that the two profiles will overlap. Theories that involve the information asymmetry between employers and employees predict a steeper wage-tenure profile than productivity-tenure profile to induce workers’ effort and enhance efficiency. This paper estimates the productivity-tenure profile and the wage-tenure profile by estimating the plant-level production function and the wage equation using employer-employee matched data from Japan. These estimations offer a comprehensive test for the relative applicability of the two theories on the wage-tenure profile. Estimation results indicate a steeper wage-tenure profile than productivity-tenure profile and point to the relative importance of the deferred wage payment contract. (論文はこのページからダウンロードできます)

第21回

日時
4月28日(土) 16:20-17:50
場所
経済学研究科第21演習室 (文科系総合研究棟10階)
報告者
瀧井 克也 (大阪大学大学院国際公共政策研究科准教授)
論題
Job Assignment and Human Capital Accumulation (with Ryuichi Tanaka)
要 旨                                                                                          
This paper examines the interactive effects of job assignment and education policy on human capital accumulation. We integrate a job assignment model into a model with human capital accumulation through tax-financed public school and tuition-financed private school. We show that with a diverse distribution of firm-specific resources, a rise in income inequality increases GDP growth rate due to the complementarity between a firm-specific resource and the skill of workers. As a comparison of education systems, we compare the short-run and long-run GDP under the purely public and the purely private education systems. We consider two scenarios. In the first scenario, the distribution of organization capital is exogenously given. Simulation of our calibrated model reveals that the public system generates higher long-run GDP than the private when we restrict our attention to reasonable parameter values, but the private would generate higher GDP than the public if the assignment effect is substantial. In the second scenario, the evolution of organization capital evolves endogenously. Simulation reveals that the public system generates higher GDP, low income inequality and high total welfare in the long run due to a positive effect of the public education system on the aggregate organization capital.

第22回

日時
5月17日(木) 16:20-17:50
場所
経済学研究科第21演習室 (文科系総合研究棟10階)
報告者
石黒 真吾 (大阪大学大学院経済学研究科准教授)
論題
Organizational Dynamics
要旨                                
This paper provides a dynamic general equilibrium framework to investigate how organizations change the modes to govern transactions over time. We show that the agency problem becomes less serious when the economy is developed well so that large market size favors decentralized organizations having more specialization. We then show that different organizational modes endogenously emerge even in the same economy and cause endogenous process of economic development.

第23回

日時
5月24日(木) 14:40-17:50 (第1報告:14:40-16:10; 第2報告:16:20-17:50)
場所
経済学研究科第3講義室 (ふだんと異なる会場です。ご注意ください!!)
報告者1渡辺 隆裕 (首都大学東京大学院社会科学研究科教授)
論題リアルオプションとゲーム理論: コミットメントかオプションか 応 用統計計量ワークショップと共催)
要 旨                                                                                                     リアルオプションでは、不確実性下における意思決定の柔軟性である「オプション」の持つ価値を認識して評価 に組み入れる。ここでの不確実性とは、天候・原油価格・地価の変動・コストの変動などを指し、それは意思決定とは無関係に確率的に決まるものと考えられて いる。これに対して企業は、「相手企業がどう動くか?」という相手の意思決定や行動に関する不確実性にも直面している。このような相手企業の行動は、天候 のような外生的に与えられた確率とは異なり、自企業の行動や意思決定に依存して変化する不確実性である。このような競争と不確実性の双方を伴う意思決定や 投資価値を分析するには、リアルオプションにだけでは不十分であり、ゲーム理論を用いた分析を統合し考察する必要がある。このような観点から、近年、ゲー ム理論とリアルオプションを統合した研究が盛んに行われている。本発表では、リアルオプションとゲーム理論を用いて、不確実性と競争状況下における投資評 価を行うための概念を簡単なモデルを提示する。前半は、1期間2時点のもっとも単純なリアルオプションのゲームによって、柔軟性の価値である「オプショ ン」 が競争状況下では柔軟性は常にプラスには働かず、自分の柔軟性を放棄する「コミットメント」 が価値を高めるときがあることを示す。後半は、この概念を連続時間の無期限や離散時点の多期間に拡張したモデルについて説明する。
報告者2
工藤 教孝 (北海道大学大学院経済学研究科准教授)
論題
Dispersion in Working Hours: Theory and Evidence (with Masaru Sasaki)
要 旨                                      
TBA

第24回

日時
6月14日(木) 16:20-17:50
場所
経済学研究科第21演習室 (文科系総合研究棟10階)
報告者
丸田 利昌 (日本大学大学院総合科学研究科教授)
論題
Multiplicity and Sensitivity of Stochastically Stable Equilibria in Coordination Games (with Akira Okada)
要 旨                                              
We investigate the equilibrium selection problem in n-person binary coordination games by means of the adaptive play with mistakes (Young 1993). We show that whenever the difference between the deviation losses of respective equilibria is not overwhelming, the stochastic stability exhibits a notable dependence on payoff parameters associated with strategy profiles where the numbers of players for the respective strategies are nearly equal. This feature necessitates the existence of games that possess multiple stochastically stable equilibria.

第25回

日時
6月21日(木) 16:45-18:15 (時間・場所がふだんと異なるのでご注意ください!!)
場所
経済学研究科第401演習室 (文科系総合研究棟4階)
報告者
小西 秀男 (Professor, Boston College)
論題
Contributing or Free-Riding? A Theory of Endogenous Lobby Formation (with Taiji Furusawa)
要 旨                                                                                              
We consider a two-stage public good provision game: In the first stage, players simultaneously decide if they join a contribution group or not. In the second stage, players in the contribution group simultaneously offer contribution schemes in order to influence a third party agent’s policy choice (say, the government chooses a level of public good provision). We use a communication-based self-enforcing equilibrium concept in a noncooperative two stage game, perfectly coalition proof Nash equilibrium (Bernheim, Peleg and Whinston, 1987 JET). We show that, in public good economy, the outcome set of this equilibrium concept is equivalent to an "intuitive" hybrid solution concept free-riding-proof core, which always exists but does not necessarily achieve global efficiency. It is not necessarily true that the formed lobby group is the highest willingness-to-pay players, nor is a consecutive group with respect to their willingnesses-to-pay. We also check how the set of equilibrium outcomes would exhibit completely different characteristics when "public good" assumption is dropped.

第26回

日時
6月28日(木) 16:20-17:50
場所
経済学研究科第21演習室 (文科系総合研究棟10階)
報告者
古沢 泰治 (一橋大学大学院経済学研究科教授)
論題
A Factor-Endowment Theory of Endogenous Firm Heterogeneity (with Hitoshi Sato)
要旨                                  
本 論文は、新しい生産技術が採用されていく過程を分析するものである。企業は標準的生産技術か労働節約的な新技術のいずれかを採用でき、企業が新技術を用い て生産活動を行うときのみ企業間の生産性格差が生じるとする。このようなとき、国の要素賦存比率の差異は企業の生産性分布に影響を与える。要素賦存比率の 差異がどう企業の技術選択に影響を及ぼすのか。そして、技術フロンティアはどのように押し上げられていくのか。このような問いに理論的に答えていく。

第27回

日時
7月12日(木) 16:20-17:50
場所
経済学研究科第21演習室 (文科系総合研究棟10階)
報告者
安藤 至大 (日本大学大学院総合科学研究科准教授)
論題
Implicit Reverse Discrimination in Firms
要 旨                                                                                       
We consider a model of delegation decision in an organization to  study the effect of three different kinds of discrimination. The principal of the organization is working with a manager and needs one additional worker. The manager is either biased or normal and this is his private information. There are two candidates for the worker and each candidate has different ability (high or low). One candidate (Red) is favored by the biased manager but the other (Green) is not. The normal manager knows the exact abilities of two candidates but the principal only knows the distribution of abilities. If the employment decision is delegated, the biased manager always chooses Red whereas the normal manager cares about the candidates' abilities and own reputation. In addition to the taste-based discrimination and the statistical discrimination, this paper introduces the concept of implicit reverse discrimination. We characterize the optimal delegation strategy and show that in this environment we can never avoid all discrimination.

9/17-9/18 秋季コンファレンス

    制度と組織の経済学

第28回

日時
10月5日(金) 15:00-16:30
場所
経済学研究科第2演習室(経済学部研究棟1階) 
報告者溝渕 英之 氏 (ブリティッシュ・コロンビア大学大学院)
論題An Economic Approach to the Measurement of Productivity Growth Using Differences Instead of Ratios  (with Erwin Diewert)
要 旨                                                      Traditional index number theory decomposes a value ratio into the product of a price index times a quantity index. Growth accounting is based on this traditional approach to index number theory.  This paper takes an alternative approach which decomposes a value difference into the sum of a price difference plus a quantity difference.  We apply this new exact difference methodology in order to decompose the growth of a new measure of labour productivity into additive explanatory factors.  This new measure of labour productivity takes into account changes in the terms of trade.  We apply our methodology to investigate the growth in living standards per unit of labour for the Japanese economy over the years 1955-2004. We observe that the role of capital accumulation became especially important over the last 14 years.

第29回

日時
10月11日(木) 14:40-17:50 (第1報告:14:40-16:10; 第2報告:16:20-17:50)
場所
経済学研究科第21演習室(文科系総合研究棟10階)
報告者1伊藤 亮 氏 (日本学術振興会特別研究員)
論題Economic Development and Non-monotonic Spatial Transitions
要 旨                                                      The purpose of the present study is to analyse non-monotonic spatial changes along to economic development. The basic structure of the model is similar to Ottaviano (1999, 2001) and Baldwin (2001), which investigated the migration process between symmetric two regions under perfect foresights, but this model adds human-capital as the new variable. The main focus of the present study is to investigate how the level of migration cost influences the shape of converging process. From the analysis of the model, population distribution draws an inverted-U curve along to economic development when the cost of migration is low enough. Also, transition of inter-regional income inequalities is in inverted-U when migration costis in intermediate level.
報告者2
戸田 淳仁 氏 (慶應義塾大学大学院経済学研究科D3/日本学術振興会特別研究員)
論題
Cop and the Anthem: How Soapy Could Have Avoided Being Jailed? (with Kenji Wada)
要旨
In this paper, we consider the effect of job training programs for criminals on 1) the probability of re-entry into jail and 2) the duration till re-entry into jail by utilizing data from Kawagoe juvenile correctional facility between 1989 and 2005.

第30回

日時
10月25日(木) 16:20-17:50
場所
経済学研究科第21演習室(文科系総合研究棟10階)
報告者
渡部 和孝 (慶應義塾大学商学部准教授)
論題
How Do Relationship Lenders Price Loans to Small Firms? "Hold-Up" Costs, Transparency, and Private and Public Security
要 旨                                          
We conduct a comprehensive examination on how relationship lenders price loans to small opaque firms using the rich matched data set of Japanese firms and their main banks.  Our major findings are: 1. Neither measures for a borrower firm’s transparency to the public (outsiders) nor measures for the firm’s transparency to its main bank affect the lending rate. 2. A bank suffering from a greater ratio of non-performing loans to total asset charges a higher lending rate.  3. Treating the non-price terms of a loan contract as endogenous variables is crucial in consistently estimating the lending rate.

第31回

日時
11月5日(月) 16:30-18:00
場所
経済学研究科第402演習室(文科系総合研究棟4階) 
報告者
孫 立堅 氏 (中国・復旦大学経済学部教授)
論題
China Payments Imbalance and Its Monetary Policy Implications: Theory and Evidence (with Hang Qian and Zheng Song)
要 旨                                                                              
This paper is aiming to understand implications of the ever-growing China payments imbalance on monetary policies. We adopt a standard intertemporal framework, in which positive productivity shocks lead to a current account surplus, and a news shock on home currecy appreciation causes capital inflows. The wealth effect of the shocks increases the demand of nontradable goods and thus boost domestic prices. This provides the incentive for the monetary authority to intervene by sterilization, as long observed in China. The observation, however, sharply contrasts the standard view that the monetary authority is unable to conduct independent policies under pegged exchange rates. We thus construct a short-run disequilibrium where the central bank can exercise control over money supply in the short run, as a reflection of the state-owned financial sector in China. Then we compute the optimal degree of sterilization in response to shocks and find that money control is mainly targetted for capital inflows. More importantly, sterilization causes further current account surplus but actually disencourages capital inflows, contradicting the conventional wisdom that monetary control is futile since it simply exaggerates capital inflows. Finally, we employ structual VAR models to reveal the underlying transmission of the payments balance shocks and monetary disturbances. The empirical results seem consistent with the details of the transmission mechanism implied by the model.

第32回

日時
11月15日(木) 15:30-17:30
場所
経済学研究科第401演習室(文科系総合研究棟4階) 
報告者
Dimitry Rtischev (学習院大学経済学部准教授)
論題
Strategic Gambling and Investment when Relative Wealth Matters
要 旨                                                             
We study the demand for a binary win-or-lose lottery in a simple economy that has risk-neutral heterogeneously-endowed consumers, a limited number of highly-desired prizes, and a policy to allocate the prizes via an auction.  We consider lotteries offering negative and positive expected returns, representing gambling and investing, respectively.  In the case of gambling, we find that the poor choose to risk a significant part of their endowment, and thereby induce the rich to also gamble, defensively.  In case of investing, we identify conditions under which the rich risk less than the poor, but find such defensive under-investment less plausible than other equilibria with full investment.  Our simple framework enables a detailed look at how, apart from their obvious effects on expected absolute wealth, both gambling and investment may be in demand as strategic instruments for redistributing the probability of winning in situations where relative wealth matters.  The findings suggest that allocating highly-desired supply-limited assets through the market may distort incentives for risk-bearing.

第33回

日時
11月22日(木) 16:20-17:50
場所
経済学研究科第21演習室(文科系総合研究棟10階)
報告者
西山 朗 (慶應義塾大学総合政策学部准教授)
論題
When Does Growth Save the Poor? Reexamining the Wealthier-Healthier Paradigm
要 旨                                                                              
This study investigates the effects of GDP per capita upon infant mortality with panel data from 83 developing countries for the period spanning the years 1962 to 2002. Partitioning income changes into spells of economic expansion and recession allows going beyond the wealthier-healthier paradigm. The present investigation finds that the impacts of income changes upon infant mortality during spells of expansion and recession are asymmetrical. During periods of expansion, income changes may or may not be a powerful tool for decreasing infant mortality, but economic recession has a devastating impact. Statistical procedures demonstrate that this is a causal relationship. Formal statistical tests prove that the results are robust against model specifications, country-specific effects and outliers. The evidence suggests that conflicting results in previous literature regarding the impact of economic growth upon poverty alleviation can be explained by discrepancies in the types of economic changes in a given region during a given period, i.e., whether the concerned region and/or the concerned period experienced positive or negative economic growth.

第34回

日時
11月26日(月) 16:30-18:00
場所
経済学研究科第402演習室(文科系総合研究棟4階)
報告者
殷 醒民 氏 (中国・復旦大学経済研究センター副所長
論題
China's Macroeconomy: Features and Trends
要 旨
N.A.

第35回

日時
11月29日(木) 16:20-17:50
場所
経済学研究科第21演習室(文科系総合研究棟10階)
報告者
大橋 弘 (東京大学大学院経済学研究科准教授)
論題
Productivity, Capital Utilization, and Intra-firm Diffusion: A Study of Steel Refining Furnaces (with Tsuyoshi Nakamura)
要 旨                                        
This paper examines the intra-firm diffusion of new technology in the Japanese steel industry. The introduction of the basic oxygen furnace was the greatest breakthrough in steel refining in the last century. Using unique panel data concerning capital utilization, the paper estimates total factor productivity by technology type, and associates the estimate with intra-firm diffusion. Estimation results reveal that the productivity difference between the old and new technologies plays an important role. The paper also finds that in operation, the old technology can better respond to changes in market demand, bringing about counter-cyclicality in the measured productivity.

第36回

日時
12月13日(木) 16:20-17:50
場所
経済学研究科第21演習室(文科系総合研究棟10階)
報告者
安田 洋祐 (政策研究大学院大学助教授)
論題
The 40% Handicap Auction
要 旨                                                                   
We study efficient license auctions when a government allocates a second license to operate in a market where one firm is already active. Firms have different marginal costs, and depending on these costs, either a monopoly or a duopoly can be efficient. Under the assumption that a demand function and firms' cost functions are linear, we obtain an extremely simple efficient mechanism that does not depend at all on the detailed information about the market. Namely, the 40% handicap auction, a modified English auction in which a newcomer that wins a license has to pay only 40% of the winning price, always achieves an efficient market structure. Our benchmark results are extended in general cases that introduce fixed costs, increase the number of incumbents, and incorporate general social welfare functions. We also show that efficiency losses caused by using the 40% handicap auction in non-linear situations are quite small.(論文はこのページからダウンロードできます)

第37回

日時
12月20日(木) 14:40-17:50 (第1報告:14:40-16:10; 第2報告:16:20-17:50)
場所
経済学研究科第21演習室(文科系総合研究棟10階)
報告者1浅野 貴央 氏(日本学術振興会特別研究員)
論題Optimal Tax Policy and Foreign Direct Investment under Ambiguity
要 旨                                      We analyze the optimal timing of an irreversible foreign direct investment by a foreign firm and the optimal tax policy by a host country under ambiguity. We derive the optimal market size at which the foreign firm switches from exporting to an irreversible foreign direct investment. Furthermore, we derive the optimal tax policy by the host country, and analyze the effect of an increase in ambiguity on the optimal tax policy. We show that the host country should reduce the optimal corporate tax rate levied on the foreign firm in response to an increase in ambiguity.
報告者2
福田 祐一 (大阪大学大学院経済学研究科准教授)
論題
On the Determination of Convenience on Japanese Government Bonds (with Makoto Saito and Shingo Takagi)
要 旨                                                                                            
This paper explores the extent to which the market valuation of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) deviates from the present values of corresponding coupons and redemption, and how such deviation depends on possible sources of convenience (specialness) associated with time-dependent components as well as issue-specific characteristics. Using market prices of long-term JGBs traded for the period between November 1995 and December 2001, this paper demonstrates empirically that common factors among issues were largely influenced by wide differences in cheapness to deliver among deliverable issues as a result of a large deviation of a hypothetical rate (6%) from market yields (far below 2%).  Such an effect of cheapness to deliver weakened after a failure to deliver was allowed in 2001.  In addition, we find evidence for the ‘flight to liquidity phenomenon’ in 1997 and 1998, as well as massive capital flows into long-term instruments in 2000 and 2001.  On the other hand, issue-specific differences in issue sizes and coupon rates had at most marginal effects on convenience.  Unlike in the US government bond market, convenience was not found in on-the-run issues up to 2000.

第38回

日時
1月17日(木) 16:20-17:50
場所
経済学研究科第21演習室(文科系総合研究棟10階)
報告者
山本 勲 (慶應義塾大学商学部准教授)+黒田 祥子 (一橋大学経済研究所准教授)
論題
ホワイトカラー・エクゼンプションは労働時間を増やすか?
要 旨                                                                  
近 年、一定の要件を満たすホワイトカラーの労働時間規制を緩和する「ホワイトカラー・エクゼンプション制度」の導入の是非が議論されており、労働時間規制の 適用除外によって総労働時間や労働者の健康状態がどのように変化するかが論点となっている。そこで、本稿では、管理職や年俸制適用の労働者など、すでに労 働時間規制の適用除外となっている労働者をトリートメント・グループ、それ以外の労働者をコントロール・グループとし、トリートメント・グループで労働時 間や健康状態などが大きく異なるかどうかを検証する。具体的には、『慶應義塾家計パネル調査(KHPS)』の個票データを利用して、労働時間規制の適用除 外のATE(Average Treatment Effect)をマッチング推計し、労働時間規制の適用除外が労働時間や健康状態へ与える影響を把握する。分析の結果、労働時間規制の適用除外によって、 労働者の労働時間や余暇時間、健康状態などが大きく変化する可能性は小さいことが明らかになった。

第39回

日時
1月24日(木) 16:20-17:50
場所
経済学研究科第21演習室(文科系総合研究棟10階)
報告者
澤田 康幸 (東京大学大学院経済学研究科准教授)
論題
How Is Consumption Smoothed against Income and Asset Shocks Induced by an Earthquake? The Case of Yamakoshi Village (with Hidehiko Ichimura and Satoshi Shimizutani)
要 旨                                                                               
We investigate how people insured themselves against unexpected losses caused by the Chuetsu earthquake in 2004.  While the conventional complete consumption insurance hypothesis for the entire village seems consistent with our data, liquidity constraints seem to inhibit the consumption risk sharing.  Examination of each risk coping measures reveal that with all the employed measures, there are more than 22 percent of households whose net damage exceed 10 million yen.  These findings suggest a limitation of the standard complete market test of concentrating on the changes in consumption.  The most important measure to cope with the earthquake risk was earthquake insurance, followed by donation and government transfer.  On the other hand, the private cash transfer plays relatively and absolutely a small role.  Finally, the reduction in consumption and dissaving are measures employed only by well-off households with annual income of at least eight million yen. This income level corresponds to less than 20% of the households in Japan.

第40回

日時
2月21日(木) 16:20-17:50
場所
経済学研究科第21演習室(文科系総合研究棟10階)
報告者
臼井 恵美子 (名古屋大学大学院経済学研究科准教授)
論題
Intergenerational Correlations of Skills
要 旨                                                                                                                      
A number of studies have found that social skills (e.g., communication, interpersonal interactions, and leadership skills) are important determinants of labor market outcomes, including occupation and wages. This paper examines whether social skills are linked across generations; and whether a child's occupational choice is determined by his/her parent's abilities and personality traits. There are few studies on the intergenerational transmission of adult social skills due to a lack of data on parents' social skills. To resolve this problem, we use occupational characteristics from the Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOT) to proxy for the parents' skills. Also utilized is the U.S. National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY79) and the U.S. Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). A model of intergenerational skill following is presented. We find that social skills (also technical skills) link across generations. The correlation coefficient is computed, which measures the closeness of the direction of the multidimensional parent-child skill vectors. Skill correlation is found along the gender line. White sons earn a wage premium for working in occupations that require similar skills to their fathers; whereas, black sons incur a wage penalty. This implies a transfer of occupationally-related human capital for whites, but not for blacks. Our findings show evidence for nepotism, when sons earn a wage premium for working in the same occupation as their fathers.

第41回

日時
3月7日(金) 16:20-17:50
場所
経済学研究科第21演習室(文科系総合研究棟10階)
報告者
相浦 洋志 氏 (名古屋大学大学院環境学研究科D3)
論題
Third-degree Price Discrimination in Wholesale Markets: Welfare and Quality of Retailers' Sales
要 旨                                                  
We analyze third-degree price discrimination and welfare property when a monopolistic manufacturer sells its products to two retailers that have different qualities and costs of sales: one is high quality but high cost, the other is low cost but low quality. In the case of third-degree price discrimination, it is well known that an increase in total output is a necessary condition for welfare improvement, and we observe that wholesale price discrimination improves welfare when total output increases. But we also observe cases of welfare improvement without increasing total output when a manufacturer sells products to a low quality retailer at a lower price than to a high quality retailer.