Research Center for Policy Design

No.1	2021年4月21日(木)　16:20-17:50 オンライン　言語：日本語
Title	Vaccination under the Pandemic and Political Support 一橋大学高久玲音氏
	Abstract: This paper examines the impact of COVID-19 vaccination on political support. We exploit Japan's age-based COVID-19 vaccine roll-out, prioritizing people aged 65 years and older. A regression discontinuity design based on a large-scale online survey reveals that COVID-19 vaccination increases favorable opinions of the vaccination progress in municipalities and infection control measures of municipal governments. By contrast, there is no significant effect on support for the central government. We also discovered that people with chronic diseases and low socioeconomic status are more affected. These results show that reciprocal motives and political information play an important role in evaluating public policies.
No.2	2022年4月28日(木) 16:20-17:50 オンライン　言語: English
Title	Gentrification and Crime: Evidence from Tax-Exempt Policy in New York City クイーンズランド大学田中聡史氏
	Abstract: We study how service trade affects structural transformation and regional patterns of specialization. Using unique Canadian trade data, we document that i) interprovincial and international trade of services has increased between 1992-2017; ii) interprovincial trade is larger in services compared to goods; iii) structural transformation occurs from goods to tradable services, especially in tradable service-intensive provinces; and iv) there is significant regional specialization in producing goods and services across provinces. Using a spatial model of structural transformation and trade, we find that service trade, domestic and international, amplifies regional specialization and increases the share of the tradable service sector in Canada.
No.3	2022年5月19日(木) 16:20-17:50 文科系総合研究棟　第21演習室+オンライン　言語: 日本語
Title	Services Trade and Structural Transformation 大阪大学鎌田拓馬氏
	Abstract: We study gentrification and crime, exploiting a tax-exempt policy in New York City (NYC). NYC abolished a property tax exemption for new construction in 2008, but the announcement was made in 2006. This time lag generated incentives for urban developers and planners for new building construction to fill vacant land. Results from a triple-differences specification indicate that misdemeanor and property crime, but not violent crime, increases in exempted areas with initially high vacancy. The increase in property crime is likely due to grand larceny-theft and larceny-theft committed by Black offenders. We also find an increase in the police use of force against Blacks. Our results are consistent with the perspective that gentrification accompanies the influx of the affluent, which in turn makes criminal opportunities more lucrative.
No.4	2022年6月9日(木) 16:20-17:50 文科系総合研究棟　第21演習室+オンライン　言語: 日本語
Title	In Search of Lost Time: Firm Vintage and Macroeconomic Dynamics 早稲田大学濵野正樹氏
	Abstract: This paper attempts to reproduce the past landscape of the economy with the help of evidence and structural models. For that purpose, we built a theoretical model consisting of endogenous firm entry and firm selection. Given the distribution of firm age and firm sales that we see today, we simulated agespecific technologies and fixed costs for operation. With these simulated parameters, we then reestablished the macroeconomic dynamics of each historical firm. With Japanese data from over 126 years, despite the massive presence of firms created after the Second World War until the oil crisis in the 1970s, we found that these historical firms show relatively low productivity. Old historical firms are subject to high fixed costs and high productivity. Finally, we demonstrated that our counterfactual fixed costs dramatically change the landscape of historical firms, as well as their characteristics.
No.5	2022年6月16日(木) 16:20-17:50 文科系総合研究棟　第21演習室+オンライン　言語： English
Title	Long-term care for singles and married couples 政策研究大学院大学 Minchung Hsu 氏
	Abstract: This paper studies the impacts of long term care (LTC) risk on single-person and married-couple households and the roles of informal care (IC) and Medicaid for LTC risk. We develop a life-cycle model where individuals face survival and health risk, and when highly disabled, face the risk of needing LTC. LTC consumption is endogenized in the model with an LTC-state dependent utility function where regular consumption and LTC consumption are valued differently. We find that household expenditures increase significantly when LTC becomes necessary, but married individuals are well insured against LTC risk when both spouses are alive and are very likely to provide IC. However, they still hold considerable assets, and we find that the saving incentive driven by LTC risk for married couples is mainly for insuring against the risk happening when a spouse becomes widow/widower who can expect much higher LTC costs.
No.6	2022年6月23日(木) 16:20-17:50 オンライン　言語: 日本語
Title	Access to Formal Childcare for Toddlers and Parental Employment and Earnings 東京大学近藤絢子氏
	Abstract: This study examines the effect of availability of accredited childcare centers, the most popular category of publicly-licensed childcare centers in Japan, on mothers’ employment and earnings. We focus on mothers with children less than two years old, most of whom are returning from parental leave to full-time work under excess demand for center-based childcare. We construct an instrument from the first-round assignment process of April enrollment and find that the enrollment to an accredited childcare center increases mothers’ employment rate by 21.7-25.8 percentage points. The effect of such enrollment on mothers’ annual salary income is 1,200,009 JPY for zero-year-old children and 649,134 JPY for one-year-old children.
No.7	2022年6月30日(木) 16:20-17:50 オンライン　言語: English
Title	The Social Value of Information in Networked Beauty Contest Model 香港中文大学村山光太氏
	Abstract: This paper studies the social value of information in the beauty contest model that allows for heterogeneous coordination motives. First, we relate the structure of agents’ coordination motives to their equilibrium use of information. In particular, the relative sensitivity of the equilibrium actions to private and public information is proportional to their Katz-Bonacich centralities. Our main result provides a taxonomy of how the social value of public information depends on the network structure: more precise public information necessarily improves welfare if and only if the weighted sum of agents’ Katz-Bonacich centralities is sufficiently small. Finally, we study the optimal degree of public information dissemination and the endogenous acquisition of private information.

No.8	2022年7月21日(木) 16:20-17:50 文科系総合研究棟　第21演習室+オンライン　言語: 日本語
Title	少子化・男女間格差・世帯間格差と結婚市場京都大学宇南山卓氏
	Abstract: 日本では、急速な少子化、依然として残る男女間賃金格差、上昇傾向にある世帯間格差、が大きな問題になっている。本研究では、モデル分析によって、この3つの事象が結婚市場での配偶者の選択を通じた相互に関連する現象であることを理論的に示す。また、結婚・就業・格差に関するさまざまな指標がモデルによって説明できることも明らかにしている。
No.9	2022年10月13日(木) 16:20-17:50 文科系総合研究棟　第21演習室+オンライン　言語: English
Title	Incorporating Diagnostic Expectations into the New Keynesian Framework 大阪大学 Donghoon Yoo 氏
	Abstract : Diagnostic expectations constitute a realistic behavioral model of inference. This paper shows that this approach for expectation formation can be productively integrated into the New Keynesian framework. To this end, we start by offering a technical treatment of diagnostic expectations in linear macroeconomic models. Diagnostic expectations generate endogenous extrapolation in general equilibrium. We show that diagnostic expectations generate extra amplification in the presence of nominal frictions; a fall in aggregate supply generates a Keynesian recession; fiscal policy is more effective at stimulating the economy; with imperfect information, diagnostic expectations generate delayed overreaction of aggregate variables. We perform Bayesian estimation of a rich medium-scale model that incorporates consensus forecast data. Diagnostic expectations outcompete news shocks as an explanation of beliefs-driven business cycles.
No.10	2022年10月20日(木) 16:20-17:50 オンライン　言語: 日本語
Title	Cryptocurrency Bubbles and Costly Mining 大阪大学岩﨑康平氏
	Abstract: This paper develops a model of a cryptocurrency by incorporating mining into the otherwise standard search-theoretic monetary framework. As usual, multiple equilibria exist due to self-fulfilling expectations. To obtain a sharp prediction on whether a cryptocurrency’s value will last in the future, I propose an equilibrium refinement based on the feature that mining uses real resources. This refinement eliminates all equilibria where the value of the cryptocurrency is zero at some date or where it converges to zero over time. This result suggests that agents can collectively sustain the value of the cryptocurrency using costly mining as a coordinating device.
No.11	2022年10月27日(木) 16:20-17:50 文科系総合研究棟　第21演習室+オンライン　言語: 日本語
Title	MACRO Dual Labor Market Revisited (joint work with Taiyo Fukai, Ayako Kondo, and Izumi Yokoyama) 東京大学川口大司氏
	Abstract: Firms increasingly rely on workforce on Alternative Employment Arrangement (AEA) to ensure flexible employment adjustment, along with workers on Traditional Employment Arrangement (TEA) to keep the room for flexible human resource management. Coexistence of two types of workers in a single firm entails micro dual market. We study the asymmetric employment and wage adjustments of two types of workers, exploiting the shocks due to exchange rate fluctuation and heterogeneous trade exposure. We find that firms absorb the shocks by changing the employment of AEA workers and the wages of TEA workers. The finding shows that two types of workers face substantially different risks.
No.12	2022年11月24日(木) 16:20-17:50 オンライン　言語: English
Title	Women's Wages and Empowerment: Pre-industrial Japan, 1600-1890 ノルウェー経済大学公文　譲氏
	Abstract: Using new evidence from servant contracts, 1600-1890, we estimate women’s wages in Japan. Women’s wages could only sustain 1.5-2 people up to 1900, the lowest recorded in the pre-industrial world. We then show the gender wage ratio was 0.7, higher than in Western Europe. Despite this, Japan had lower female empowerment for two reasons. First, absolute wages were low, so women were not economically autonomous. Second, landownership incomes were mostly earned by men, raising their bargaining positions. Low female empowerment in Japan could also explain the early and universal marriage of its women unlike their empowered Western European counterparts.
DSSR	Revisiting suicide rate during wartime: Evidence from the Sri Lankan civil war 細谷賞受賞講演日本貿易振興機構アジア経済研究所會田剛史氏
No.13	2022年12月15日(木) 16:20-17:50 文科系総合研究棟　第21演習室+オンライン　言語: English
Title	Life time cost of bad health (joint with De Nardi and Pashchenko) 政策研究大学院大学 Ponpoje Porapakkarm 氏
	Abstract: What generates the observed differences in economic outcomes by health? How costly it is to be unhealthy? We show that health dynamics are largely driven by ex-ante fixed heterogeneity, or health types, even when controlling for one's past health history. In fact, health types are the key driver of long spells of bad health. We incorporate these rich health dynamics in an estimated structural model and show that health types and their correlation with other fixed characteristics are important to account for the observed gap in economic outcomes by health. Monetary and welfare losses due to bad health over the life cycle are large, concentrated, and to a large extent due to factors pre-determined earlier in life. A large portion of the related monetary costs is due to income losses, especially for people of working age, while a substantial portion of the welfare losses arises because health affects life expectancy.
No.14	2022年12月22日(木) 16:20-17:50 文科系総合研究棟　第21演習室+オンライン　言語: 日本語
Title	Delegation in Teams (joint work with Malin Arve) 同志社大学本領崇一氏
	Abstract : This paper considers delegation of a decision to a team of informed agents. It shows under what conditions delegation is optimal as well as to whom to delegate the formal decision-making right or in other words, whom to nominate the team leader. The latter depends on a trade-off between 1) improved communication and better information in the team when the player with the decision-making rights is considered closer to the other agents' preferences and 2) the cost from distorted decisions due to biased and misaligned preferences.
No.15	2023年1月5日(木) 16:20-17:50 文科系総合研究棟　第21演習室+オンライン言語: 日本語
Title	Fertility Decline and the Reversal of Gender Education Gap 京都大学安井大真氏
	Abstract: The gender education gap is reversed with economic development. This paper proposes a theory explaining this occurrence. Their superior physical strength enables men to obtain sufficient earnings without educational qualifications, which discourages them from acquiring education. In contrast, their heavier childcare burden discourages women from acquiring education as it lowers their rate of return from education. Whether men or women acquire more education depends on which effect is dominant. The model accounts for an important share of observed trends in the gender education gap, gender wage gap, college wage premium, and fertility in the United States.
No.16	2023年1月19日(木) 16:20-17:50 文科系総合研究棟　第21演習室+オンライン　言語: 日本語
Title	The Value of Trademarks: MACRO Evidence from Chinese Exports to Africa 一橋大学黒石悠介氏
	Abstract: This paper studies trademarks in developing countries. I introduce a trademark as a technology to mitigate information frictions in a general equilibrium setting with firm heterogeneity. In my model, highly productive firms are more likely to use a trademark since the revenue increase outweighs the trademark cost only for these firms. This leads to reallocation away from less productive firms. I test my predictions using Chinese exports to Africa in the tire industry. I exploit a sudden change in the member countries ratifying an international trademark agreement. My empirical findings support my predictions. At the extensive margin, a Chinese exporter decreases the probability of exporting to the ratifying countries. On the intensive margin, a large exporter earns more by using a trademark while a small exporter does not use a trademark and its market size shrinks. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests welfare increases by 0.014% in Africa through the use of trademarks in the ratifying countries’ tire industries.
No.17	2023年2月9日(木) 16:20-17:50 文科系総合研究棟　第21演習室+オンライン　言語: 日本語
Title	A Field Experiment on Antitrust Compliance (joint work with Kei Kawai) 京都大学中林　純氏
	Abstract: We study the effectiveness of firms’ compliance programs by conducting a field experiment in which we disclose to a random subset of Japanese firms evidence of illegal bid-rigging. We track the bidding behavior of the treated firms and how they compare with the control group. We find that firms change their bidding behavior: our test of bid-rigging fails to reject the null of competition when applied to the bidding data of the treated firms after the intervention. We find evidence that these changes are not the result of firms ceasing to collude, however. Our findings instead suggest that firms continue to collude even after the intervention and that the changes in the bidding behavior we document are the result of active concealment of evidence by cartelizing firms.

東北大学現代経済学研究会セミナー
Tohoku University Modern Economics Seminar

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東北大学 現代経済学研究会セミナー Tohoku University Modern Economics Seminar

Past Seminars ▶ をクリックして表示

東北大学現代経済学研究会セミナー
Tohoku University Modern Economics Seminar