2021年4月22日(木) 16:20-17:50 オンライン
言語：日本語
石井利江子 氏 (滋賀大学)
Title: Transnational machine learning with screens for flagging bid-rigging cartels
Abstract: This paper presents a model to study how the expertise acquisition by financial firms influence liquidity. When pledgeability increases, a demand for financial expertise arises, which allows a financial firm to strengthen a bargaining position with its counterparties. The benefit of financial expertise can boost funding liquidity but then, liquidity can evaporate. Financial regulation that imposes bonus caps can be effective to stabilize the economy.
2021年5月6日(木) 16:20-17:50 オンライン
言語：日本語
松田一茂 氏 (神戸大学)
Title: Fundamental Research and the Market for Higher Education
Abstract: Research is an important factor of economic growth. Colleges operate in different ways from monopolistic firms pursuing profit. We document facts on the characteristics of college and research output and build a heterogeneous-agent model with the higher education market in which colleges do research. We found that need-based subsidies aimed at reducing inequality across students increases college research and leads to economic growth. We also found that meritocratic research subsidies unexpectedly reduce the incentive for colleges to do research.
2021年5月20日(木) 16:20-17:50 オンライン
言語：日本語
北村周平 氏 (大阪大学)
Title: Public Media Do Serve the State: A Field Experiment
Abstract: A vital role of public media according to the theoretical literature is to enable consumers to cross-check the information provided by slanted private media. To check the neutrality of public media, we conducted a randomized field experiment in Japan in collaboration with the nation's public service broadcaster in which the capacity for viewing its programs was randomly increased. Contrary to our expectations, we find that the treatment increased the evaluation of certain policies by raising the viewing time of its programs. To study the mechanism, we use unsupervised machine learning to measure media slant using the semantic similarity between TV programs and the official statements. Using this metric, we find that the positive effect is driven by subjects’ exposure to information slanted in favor of the domestic government during the experiment. These findings highlight the importance of creating institutions that secure the independence of public media.
2021年6月17日(木) 16:20-17:50 オンライン
言語：日本語
中澤伸彦 氏 (一橋大学)
Title: Does single-sex schooling help or hurt labor market outcomes? Evidence from a natural experiment in South Korea.
Abstract：We investigate the effects of attending a single-sex high school on future labor market outcomes through use of a randomized natural experiment. South Korean students are randomly assigned, by lottery, to single-sex or co-educational schools within their school districts. Using a large set of individual-level panel data, we find that entering single-sex schools significantly decreases female labor market outcomes after graduation. In contrast, we do not find evidence that single-sex education affects male outcomes. We explore possible mechanisms for these asymmetric treatment effects, including career choice and post-graduation network effects.
2021年6月24日(木) 16:20-17:50 オンライン
言語：日本語
笹原彰 氏 (慶應義塾大学)
Title: The impact of trade on the gender gaps:A model-based quantitative investigation
Abstract：This paper investigates the role of international trade in explaining an increase of the female labor market participation rate in the U.S. We build a model with two sectors, manufacturing and services, and types of labor, female and male. Female labor has comparative advantage in service production. The model demonstrates that a decrease in trade costs and an increase in the manufacturing productivity in the foreign country lead to a rise of the service sector at home. This change increases the demand for female labor and raises the female relative wage. Our counterfactual analysis suggests that international trade explains about a one-fifth of the decline of gender wage gap between the early 1970s and the late 2000s in the U.S.
2021年7月1日(木) 16:20-17:50 オンライン
言語：日本語
及川浩希 氏 (早稲田大学)
Title: Misallocation and Firm Exit
Abstract：Exiting firms often show a declining trend in sales and productivity over years before exit. We also find lack of intangible investment, such as R&D, during the precursor of exit using Japanese firm-level data. Shouldn't they exit earlier and free up the resources they use to the market? How distorted is firm exit by policies to bail out low performance businesses? To answer these questions, we construct a general equilibrium model with firm exit that is consistent with the observed pre-exit firm dynamics. In the model, the exiting firm's declining trend in performance depends on the total R&D investment of other firms in the same industry. We show that promoting firm exit can improve aggregate productivity, growth, and welfare.
2021年7月29日(木) 14:45-16:15 オンライン
言語：日本語
鈴木通雄 氏 (内閣府, 東北大学)
Title: The Heterogeneous Effects of COVID-19 on Labor Markets: People's Movement and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions
Abstract：The paper investigates the heterogeneous effect of a policy-induced decline in people's mobility on the Japanese labor market outcome during the early COVID-19 period. Regressing individual-level labor market outcomes on prefecture-level mobility changes using policy stringency index as an instrument, our two-stage least squares estimator presents the following findings. First, the number of people absent from work increased for all groups of individuals, but the magnitude was greater for workers with non-regular employment status, low-educated people, females, and those aged 31 to 45 years. Second, while work hours decreased for most groups, the magnitude was especially greater for business owners without employees and those aged 31 to 45. Third, the negative effect on unemployment was statistically significant for older males who worked as regular workers in the previous year. The impact was particularly considerable for those aged 60 and 65, thus suggesting that they lost their re-employment opportunity due to COVID-19. Fourth, all these adverse effects were greater for people working in service and sales occupations. Fifth, a counterfactual experiment of more stringent policies indicates that while an average worker would lose JPY 3,857 in weekly earnings by shortening their work hours, the weekly loss for those aged 31 to 45 years and working in service and sales occupations would be about JPY 13,842.
2021年10月14日(木) 16:20-17:50 オンライン
言語：日本語
藤本淳一 氏 (政策研究大学院大学)
Title: Aggregate and Distributional Effects of `Free' Secondary Schooling in the Developing World
Abstract: This paper explores the aggregate and distributional effects of publicly funded secondary schooling in the developing world. To do so, we build a general equilibrium model of human capital accumulation by overlapping generations of heterogeneous households. Households face borrowing constraints that can lead to misallocation of talent of high-ability children from low-income households in equilibrium.
We estimate the model to match a randomized controlled trial that provided scholarships for free secondary education to a random set of low-income, highability children in Ghana. We then use the estimated model to simulate the effects of scaling up to a nationwide policy of taxpayer-financed secondary schooling in general equilibrium. We find that low-income families gain whether or not their children attend school through a rise in the relative wages of low-skilled workers. The highest-income families lose through higher taxes and lower relative wages of the skilled. Overall GDP per capita rises by around 7 percent in steady-state, which arise through less misallocation of talent and lower population growth.
2021年10月21日(木) 16:20-17:50 オンライン
言語：日本語
辻山仁志 氏 (Goethe University Frankfurt)
Title: Optimal Taxation along the Development Spectrum
Abstract: I study the optimal fiscal policies over the whole development spectrum. I develop a simple heterogeneous-agent model with sectoral choices featuring a subsistence self-employment sector whose income is untaxed. I analytically solve for social welfare and characterize optimal redistributive tax policies. I then construct a quantitative model featuring a nonlinear tax and transfer system, sectoral choices, private insurance, and flexible labor supply along intensive and extensive margins.
2021年10月28日(木) 16:20-17:50 オンライン
言語：日本語
會田剛史 氏 (IDE-JETRO)
Title: Paddy Cultivation as an Origin of Cooperative Norms: Evidence from Natural and Artefactual Experiments
Abstract: It has been argued that paddy cultivation experience enhances cooperative norms through collective farm management. This study aims to test this paddy hypothesis using a unique natural experimental setting in rural Sri Lanka, where two types of irrigation (for paddy or for non-paddy) were randomly assigned to farmers in an irrigation scheme, and, thus, the cultivated crops were exogenously determined. Comparing to the previous large-scale regional or nation-wide comparisons, this setting enables us to test the hypothesis under a geographically and culturally homogenous setting. We constructed a two-round panel of lab-in-the-field experiments to measure the long-term changes in social preferences. Using these natural and artefactual experiments, we show that paddy cultivation experience enhances the level of cooperative norms particularly among the known members. This result is consistent with our data showing the greater extent of interdependent works in the real world among paddy farmers. Our study supports the group of literature which claims that social preference can endogenously change through the real world experiences and that among which is farming.
2021年11月25日(木) 16:20-17:50 文科系総合研究棟 第21演習室+オンライン
言語：日本語
室岡健志 氏 (大阪大学)
Title: Procrastination Markets
Abstract: We develop models of markets with procrastinating consumers when competition operates-or is supposed to operate-both through the initial selection of providers and through the
possibility of switching providers. As in other work, consumers fail to switch to better options
after signing up with a firm, so at that stage they exert little downward pressure on the prices
they pay. Unlike in other work, however, consumers-falsely expecting to do still better in
the future-are not keen on starting with the best available offer, so at this stage they do not
generate much price competition either. In fact, a competition paradox results: an increase in
the number of firms or the intensity of marketing increases the frequency with which a consumer
receives switching offers, so it facilitates procrastination and thereby potentially raises prices.
By implication, continuous changes in the environment can, through a self-reinforcing entry or
marketing process, lead to discontinuous changes in market outcomes. Sign-up deals serve their
classically hypothesized role of returning ex-post profits to consumers extremely poorly, while
in other senses they exacerbate the failure of price competition.
2021年12月2日(木) 16:20-17:50 オンライン
言語：日本語
山田憲 氏 (京都大学)
Title: The Race between Technological Progress and Female Advancement: Changes in Gender and Skill Premia in OECD Countriess
Abstract: The male-female wage gap has declined in many countries, while the skilled-unskilled wage gap has increased in some countries. The rate of decline in the gender wage gap tends to be greater for unskilled workers than skilled workers, while the rate of increase in the skill wage gap tends to be greater for male workers than female workers. These differences are more significant in the service sector than in the goods sector. To account for these trends, we develop and estimate a sector-level production function extended to allow for gender-specific capital-skill complementarity using cross-country and cross-industry panel data from OECD countries. We further derive and estimate the elasticities of substitution among different types of capital and labor in the aggregate production function and evaluate the quantitative contribution of specific capital and labor quantities to changes in gender and skill premia. Our results show that ICT equipment is more complementary not only to skilled workers than unskilled workers but also to female workers than male workers. Changes in gender and skill premia can be explained in terms of the race between progress in ICT and advances in educational attainment and female employment. In addition, we examine the implications of gender-specific capital-skill complementarity for changes in the labor share of income.
2021年12月16日(木) 16:20-17:50 オンライン
言語：English
日野将志 氏 (一橋大学)
Title: A Model of Anticipated Consumption Tax Changes
Abstract: This paper studies household spending responses to anticipated changes in the consumption tax. To do so, I construct a life-cycle heterogeneous-agent general equilibrium model with durables. The model features a wedge in durable transactions that reflects the actual consumption tax system: households pay the tax when buying the durables but do not receive the tax when selling them. There are three main findings. First, the baseline model reproduces an empirically consistent dynamic pattern of tax elasticity of the taxable spendings. Second, I find that life-cycle is a key component to match the level of tax elasticity of durable spending. Third, the baseline model generates smaller stockpiling of durables based on realistic motive than a model without the wedge. I then use the model for two counter-factual experiments.The first counter-factual experiment finds that the effect of a consumption tax cut is not symmetric to the tax hike. The second counter-factual experiment which compares a one-time tax hike and a multiple-times tax hike shows the multiple-times tax hike scheme generates smaller welfare cost than one-time tax hike.
2021年12月23日(木) 16:20-17:50 第21演習室+オンライン
言語：日本語
川田恵介 氏 (東京大学)
Title: Describe the Heterogeneous Impacts of COVID-19 on Labor Market
Abstract: This paper describes the COVID-19 impacts on Japanese Labor Market. We employ a large-scale government statistics, the Labor Force Survey, and causal machine learning technique. Our approach allows us to detect heterogeneous impacts of COVID-19 by a data-driven way. We find significant heterogeneity, the COVID-19 intensively decreases employment rates among young, female, and non-regular workers.
2022年1月6日(木) 16:20-17:50 第21演習室+オンライン
言語：日本語
後藤潤 氏 (神戸大学)
Title: Career Incentives and Judicial Independence: Evidence from the Indian Lower Judiciary
Abstract: Many democracies are concerned that the imposition of accountability on judges (i.e., providing incentives to explain their decisions to those outside the judicial system) will undermine judicial independence. However, empirical evidence on the validity of this concern is highly scarce. This paper investigates whether a political leader's intervention into the judicial system through personnel evaluation infringes impartial sentencing by judges, focusing on the lower judiciary in India. To identify the causality, we exploit natural experiments: state governor's replacement from male to female causing the exogenous shift of gender preferences in personnel evaluation of individual judges. Adopting regression discontinuity design, we compare judge's decision outcomes immediately before and after the announcement of female governor's arrival, who have the final authority in personnel matters. We find that judges pander to new female governors and hand down harsher sentences for violent crimes against women immediately after the announcement of female governor's appointment. Our evidence suggests that granting discretion to the executive branch over personnel matters of judges can be detrimental to independent administration of justice. Therefore, careful institutional design is necessary to balance judicial accountability and independence.
2022年1月20日(木) 16:20-17:50 第21演習室+オンライン
言語：English
奥山陽子 氏 (Uppsala University)
Title: Electoral Institutions, Women's Representation, and Policy Outcomes
Abstract: Do electoral institutions affect the degree to which female legislators address women’s interests in legislative processes? While the growing literature has examined whether increased women’s representation causally affects policy outcomes, whether electoral institutions mediate the effect is less known. To fill the gap, this study tests whether proportional representation (PR) encourages female representatives to address women-specific interests more than a single-member district (SMD) does. To elicit the causal impact of electoral institutions, we leverage the unique “best loser” provision of the mixed electoral system in the Japanese House of Representatives elections, where a marginal candidate may win an SMD seat or PR seat by chance. To fully account for the complex structure of the mixed electoral system, we apply the simulation-based regression discontinuity design. Across different legislative activities, we consistently find a significant effect of holding a PR seat: female PR representatives more frequently affiliate with women-related committees, submit question memorandums on women’s issues, and endorse petitions regarding women’s interests than their male counterparts, but significantly less so when they stand as SMD representatives. The institutional effect likely arises because a SMD representative has higher incentives to address issues both male and female voters care about. Such a vote-seeking strategy is not necessarily compatible with representing women-specific interests. Meanwhile, a PR representative earns their party’s reputation from female voters by addressing women-specific interests. Overall, our results suggest that electoral institutions do affect the relationship between women’s nominal representation and their policy consequences. More broadly, our findings bring forward the research agenda in political economics to better understand the political institutions and policy choices and, in particular, underscore the importance of institutional environments in leveraging diverse voices in policymaking.
2022年2月17日(木) 16:20-17:50 オンライン
言語：日本語
菅文彦 氏 (九州大学)
Title: The Impact of the Rise and Collapse of Japan’s Housing Price Bubble on Households’ Lifetime Utility
Abstract: This study estimates the impact of the dramatic changes in housing prices during Japan’s bubble from the late 1980s to the 1990s on households’ asset accumulation and utility over their life cycle. We construct a life-cycle model explaining households’ consumption/saving and housing decisions under collateral and borrowing constraints.We estimate this model using data from the Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES), which includes data on households’ housing wealth estimated from objective information. Using the estimated model, we then conduct a counterfactual simulation in which we assume that housing prices remained constant during the bubble period. Doing so allows us to quantify the gains/losses of lifetime utility due to the housing price boom and bust. We find that 72.2% of the households experienced an average decrease in lifetime utility equivalent to 5.7% of lifetime income. On average, Japan’s housing price boom and bust caused a loss in lifetime utility equivalent to 4.7% of lifetime income. Moreover, we compare the impact of the housing price bubble across cohorts and find that the impact was greatest for those who experienced the bubble at ages 35-45.
2022年3月10日(木) 16:20-17:50 オンライン Online
言語: 日本語
青木周平 氏 (信州大学)
Title: A Pomeranzian Growth Theory of the Great Divergence
2022年3月24日(木) 16:20-17:50 オンライン Online
言語: 日本語
猪野明生 氏 (横浜国立大学)