2026.06.25(THU)16:00-18:00

Title:

Measuring Chinese Geopolitical Risk 伊藤 亜聖氏(東京大学)

Abstract:
This paper constructs a new long-run measure of geopolitical risk for China based on Chinese-language state media. Using the full text of People’s Daily articles from 1946 to 2022, we develop the People’s Daily Geopolitical Risk Index (PDGPR) and study its economic effects. VAR estimates show that geopolitical risk shocks are followed by short-run declines in output growth and inflation. Using firm-level data, we further find that higher PDGPR is associated with lower investment. While PDGPR shares substantial information content with global GPR measures, it provides a useful lens for tracing how international geopolitical shocks are transmitted into China’s domestic information environment and economic behavior.

Title:

Cost and Demand Effects of Legal Adult Prostitution on Child Sex Trafficking （Naoshi Doi, Kenmei Tsubota, and Md. Sanaul Haque Mondalとの共著） 庄司 匡宏氏(東京大学)

Abstract:
We examine the impact of legal adult prostitution on the prevalence of trafficked child sex workers and children engaging in prostitution out of economic necessity. Using a nationwide survey of child sex workers, historically determined locations of legal brothels, and counterfactual simulations, we find that the presence of legal brothels increases the prevalence of trafficked children by 18.8 percent nationwide, primarily because they are camouflaged as legal prostitutes. Rigorous screening procedure within brothels mitigates this increase. However, the inability to exclude non-trafficked children who misreport their age as adults raises their prevalence beyond that of actual brothels, revealing policy tradeoffs.

場　所 Venue：

東北大学 経済学研究棟(C16) 4F 大会議室 4F Meeting Room Graduate School of Economics and Management Building (C16)