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Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University

Professor, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University

Wildfires are becoming more frequent and intense, especially in countries with a large forest coverage like Brazil. Using monthly data for Brazilian municipalities from 2010 to 2019, this research estimates the aggregate effect of wildfires on mortality. It combines satellite fire detections, ERA5 wind and weather data, and land-use data in fixed-effects regressions, with fires measured within 50, 75 and 100 km of each municipality. Fires increase mortality, and the effect falls as distance grows. The effects come mainly from upwind fires, which point to smoke transport as the main channel. Infants, adults aged 45–64 and people aged 65 and over are the most affected. We also document an indirect ecological channel: fires initially reduce reported mosquito-borne disease cases, but the effect reverses to an increase about 16–20 months later as vegetation regrows. These findings show that wildfires harm health both directly and indirectly.(JEL Classification: Q54, I18, C23)