TUPD-2026-003

TITLE Sophie and the locust curse: Effects of locust plague on human capital accumulation
AUTHORS Bai Yu

Assistant Professor, Graduate School of Economics, Tohoku University

Guojun He

Professor, Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Hong Kong

Pak Hung Lam

Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, National Taiwan University

Li Yanjun

Assistant Professor, Graduate School of Economics, Tohoku University

P D F
ABSTRACT

We investigate the impact of locust swarm invasions on human capital accumula- tion using data from Burkina Faso, emphasizing short-, medium-, and long-term effects. Using geo-coded data, we find that locust outbreaks reduce school enrollment of the affected cohorts in the short term, decrease their cognitive performance and educational attainment in the medium term, and lower adult incomes in the long run. Crop losses, rising food prices, and use of child labor during the locust crisis drive these effects. Early locust control proves to be a highly cost-effective way to promote education, costing just $7.63 per additional year of schooling.

KEYWORDS Locust swarms; Human capital accumulation; School enrollment; Cog- nitive skills; Labor market; Burkina Faso.
POSTED Feburuary 2026

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