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東北大学経済学研究科 講師

東北大学経済学研究科 講師

嶺南大学経済学部 助教

Little is known about the historical origins of political instability, and systematic empiri- cal evidence remains limited. This paper addresses this gap by examining the historical deter- minants of political instability through the lens of the millennia-long centralized authoritarian monarchy in imperial China. Exploiting proximity to imperial capitals as a proxy for the strength of centralized statehood, we show that counties historically exposed to stronger and more persis- tent state penetration exhibit significantly lower levels of political instability today, as reflected in a lower incidence of anti-government protests. Our results further suggest that cultural trans- mission, rather than sustained development, demographic change, or institutional continuity, is the primary channel through which the legacy of long-defunct institutions endures.