“Œ–k‘åŠwŒ»‘ãŒoÏŠwŒ¤‹†‰ï
2019”N“x‹L˜^


2019”N4ŒŽ18“ú(–Ø)@16:20-17:50@‘æ401‰‰KŽºi•¶‰ÈŒn‘‡Œ¤‹†“4ŠKj
Œ¾ŒêF“ú–{Œê

‹{è’qŽ‹ Ž (_ŒË‘åŠw)

Title: Stock Market Response to Public Investment under the Zero Lower Bound: Cross-industry Evidence from Japan (abstract)

This research examines the effects of public investment on stock returns using Japanese cross-industry data. We calculate impulse response functions using the local projection method. The empirical results show that public investment shocks have strong and stimulating effects on stock returns when the nominal interest rate is at the zero lower bound (ZLB) while negative responses dominate outside of the ZLB period. Furthermore, the estimated impulse responses for the non-manufacturing industry group are larger than those of the manufacturing industry group. Our results imply that the government should increase public investment when nominal interest rates are near zero to prop up the stock market and cut back once the economy is no longer in a liquidity trap.


2019”N4ŒŽ25“ú(–Ø)@16:20-17:50@‘æ401‰‰KŽºi•¶‰ÈŒn‘‡Œ¤‹†“4ŠKj
Language: English

‰ª’n猏® Ž (“Œ–k‘åŠw)

Title: Sovereign Default Triggered by Inability to Repay Debt (abstract)

The Greek sovereign default episode in 2012 was characterized by its high debt-to- GDP ratio and the severe economic contraction following the default. Conventional strategic default models designed to analyze a government?s incentive to default often fail to replicate these characteristics. To address this issue, we provide a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model where a sovereign default is triggered by the government?s inability to repay its debt. We show that the inability-to-repay model replicates the empirical features observed in Greece, while the conventional strategic default model calibrated to the Greek economy does not.


2019”N5ŒŽ16“ú(–Ø)@16:20-17:50@‘æ401‰‰KŽºi•¶‰ÈŒn‘‡Œ¤‹†“4ŠKj
Œ¾ŒêF“ú–{Œê

‘å“yˆä—Á“ñ Ž (“Œ‹žH‹Æ‘åŠw)

Title: Trade, Growth, and International Recessions induced by Country-Specific Financial Shocks (abstract)

Can policy makers in a country prevent cross-border transmissions of financial crisis in other countries by restricting international financial transactions? In this study, I develop a two-country, dynamic general equilibrium model featuring endogenous growth, international trade, and financial frictions, and explore how financial shocks in one country propagate to its partner country through trade in goods alone. I first analytically characterize the balanced growth equilibrium where the two countries have the same rate of trend growth without shocks. I then use the model to quantify the international transmissions of a credit crunch (a financial shock) and an adverse productivity shock. It is found that the financial shock can induce a persistent global downward shift in the level of GDP even without financial integration, whereas the latter shock can not.


2019”N5ŒŽ23“ú(–Ø)@16:20-17:50@‘æ401‰‰KŽºi•¶‰ÈŒn‘‡Œ¤‹†“4ŠKj
Language: English

—é–ØŽj”n Ž (¬æü‘åŠw)

Title: Inequality and asset fire sales (abstract)

It is widely acknowledged that fire sales were a critical factor in inducing and exacerbating the financial crises of 2007--2008. The leverage of financial intermediaries, which is defined as the ratio of total assets to capital, is a key factor in causing fire sales. Why do financial intermediaries expand their balance sheets despite subsequently having to sell their assets at discounted prices? To examine this question, we incorporate financial intermediaries into a three-period incomplete market economy model, in which households face countercyclical and uninsured idiosyncratic income shocks. We demonstrate that countercyclical income inequality and market incompleteness result in leveraged investment and subsequent asset fire sales by financial intermediaries in equilibrium. The first contribution of this paper is that we demonstrate that the mechanism between asset prices and leverages could successfully solve the famed asset-pricing puzzles. The second contribution is that we analyze the impact of financial regulation on the welfare of ex ante homogeneous households.


2019”N6ŒŽ10“ú(ŒŽ)@16:20-17:50@ŒoÏŠw•”Œ¤‹†“4ŠK‘å‰ï‹cŽº
Language: English

–x‰ë”Ž Ž (ˆê‹´‘åŠw)

Title: Perceptions about the Economy and Policy Effects in Japan: Economists versus the General Public (abstract)

To plan economic policies properly and implement them effectively, efforts to form a consensus on the current state of the economy and the quantitative effects of economic policies are necessary. And to understand how a consensus can be formed, it is useful to know how perceptions about the economy and policy effects differ (1) among the general public, (2) among economists, and (3) between the general public and economists. In my seminar presentation on July 10th, I would report the findings from a survey of the general public and economists in Japan on the current situation of the Japanese economy and peoplefs perceptions of the effects of macroeconomic policies. The findings suggest that (1) the general public and economists often have quite different views about the Japanese economy and policy effects, and that (2) there are no systematic differences in views across different types of economists. In other words, there appears to be a broad gconsensush among economists in Japan, while the general public does not always agree with the economistsf views.


2019”N6ŒŽ28“ú(‹à)@16:20-17:50@‘æ401‰‰KŽºi•¶‰ÈŒn‘‡Œ¤‹†“4ŠKj
Language: English

óŒÃ‘׎j Ž (‘ˆî“c‘åŠw)

Title: Strategic Ambiguity with Probabilistic Voting (abstract)

Political parties and candidates usually prefer making ambiguous promises. This study identifies the conditions under which candidates choose ambiguous promises in equilibrium, given convex utility functions of voters. The results show that in a deterministic model, no equilibrium exists when voters have convex utility functions. However, in a probabilistic voting model, candidates make ambiguous promises in equilibrium when, (i) voters have convex utility functions, and (ii) the distribution of voters' most preferred policies is polarized.


2019”N7ŒŽ4“ú(–Ø)@16:20-17:50@‘æ401‰‰KŽºi•¶‰ÈŒn‘‡Œ¤‹†“4ŠKj
Language: English

Weina Zhou Ž (Dalhousie University, ˆê‹´‘åŠw)

Title: Group Discrimination in the Classroom and Academic Achievement (abstract)

This paper investigates the impacts of discrimination by local students against their rural migrant classmates, the children of migrant workers, in urban middle school in China. Our empirical strategy relies on isolating exogenous variation in localsf discriminatory attitudes towards rural migrants across randomly assigned classrooms in the same school. Non-school friendship network is used to instrument local studentsf discriminatory attitudes inside the classroom. We find classroom group discrimination against migrants leads to reductions in migrantsf English and Mathematics test score. The negative effects of discrimination are largest for migrant students with less educated parents, lower ability, lower self-confidence and females.


2019”N7ŒŽ18“ú(–Ø)@16:20-17:50@‘æ1‰‰KŽºiŒoÏŠwŒ¤‹†“1F)
Language: English , Data Science Workshop‚Æ‹¤Ã

Yih-chyi Chuang Ž (National Chengchi University)

Title: A Prerequisite for Generating Human Capital-Growth Nexus: Public Health Matters (abstract)

We construct a growth model by incorporating public health into household intertemporal decision making. Public health improvement reduces the infant mortality rate, which in turn reduces the fertility rate and enhances private investment in both education and health, which further accelerates long-term growth of the economy. We simulate the model using U.K. historical data and similar examples fit the USA and China as well. The major policy implication is that public health improvement can be the prerequisite for generating human capital-growth nexus.


2019”N7ŒŽ25“ú(–Ø)@16:20-17:50@‘æ401‰‰KŽºi•¶‰ÈŒn‘‡Œ¤‹†“4ŠKj
Œ¾ŒêF“ú–{Œê

›–ì ‘‹I Ž (‘å“Œ•¶‰»‘åŠw)

Title: Effective Method for Supporting Elderly Survivors after the Great East Japan Earthquake (abstract)

The Great East Japan Earthquake of March 11, 2011 had a devastating impact on the northeastern part of Japan. Using panel data collected before and six months after the earthquake from an affected city, this study examines the effect of relief aid from relatives and friends and one from the government on the well-being of the elderly survivors. The results of the estimation show that the housing have essential for the subjective well-being of household in the aftermath of the disaster. There was a significant negative impact on life satisfaction for people whose houses were completely destroyed. Even though they receive relief financial aid from both the family, relatives or friends and government, they could not increase in survivorsf subjective well-being.


2019”N10ŒŽ3“ú(–Ø)@16:20-17:50@‘æ401‰‰KŽºi•¶‰ÈŒn‘‡Œ¤‹†“4ŠKj
Œ¾ŒêF“ú–{Œê

X“c —TŽj Ž (–@­‘åŠw)

Title: Forecasting Public Investment Using Daily Stock Returns (abstract)

This paper investigates the predictability of public investment in Japan using the daily excess stock returns of the construction industry, to contribute to the recent discussion on fiscal foresight. To examine the relationship between monthly public investment and daily stock returns without any prior time aggregation, we employ the VAR model with MIDAS regression and estimate the optimal weights for connecting high-frequency and low-frequency data in addition to VAR coefficients and the variance-covariance structure. We find that the VAR model with MIDAS regression reduces the mean square prediction error in out-of-sample forecasting by approximately 15% and 2.5% compared to the no-change forecast and VAR model forecasting with prior time aggregation, respectively. Moreover, using the local projection method, we find evidence of the fiscal news shock estimated in our proposed model delaying positive effects on output, consumption, hours worked, and real wage when news shocks actually result in increasing public investment. This finding suggests the New Keynesian structure of the Japanese economy.


2019”N10ŒŽ17“ú(–Ø)@16:50-18:20@‘æ401‰‰KŽºi•¶‰ÈŒn‘‡Œ¤‹†“4ŠKj
Œ¾ŒêF“ú–{Œê

¼‘º mŒ› Ž (ç—tH‹Æ‘åŠw)

Title: Who Has Benefited from Expansion of Nursing Care Homes?: Exploitation of Government Intervention on the Supply Side of Elderly Care Market (abstract)

This study analyzes the effect of informal elderly care on caregiver labor supply. The Japanese government intervenes on the supply side of the elderly care market and the government regulates market entry of nursing home suppliers in Japan. This analysis utilizes exogenous variations from the supply side of government intervention on the elderly care market. According to our results, the Japanese policy expanding nursing care homes reduces informal care provision by female workers with low opportunity cost. As a result, our result suggests that the expansion of nursing care homes in Japan increases labor supply of female workers with low opportunity cost. We also discuss the Japanese government expense for providing nursing care service. The expense per capita of operating nursing care homes is higher than wage income of high ratio of non-regular female workers. The expense of operating nursing care homes is higher than providing in-home service per capita. It is possible that the Japanese policy expanding nursing care homes has already arrived at the point where it should be reconsidered. The policy has put pressure on the Japanese budget.


2019”N10ŒŽ31“ú(–Ø)@16:20-17:50@‘æ401‰‰KŽºi•¶‰ÈŒn‘‡Œ¤‹†“4ŠKj
Œ¾ŒêF“ú–{Œê

¬Ž› Š°² Ž (“ú–{‹âs)

Title: Old Workers and Sustainability of Social Security in Population Aging (abstract)

Sustainability of the Social Security system under population aging is currently under debate. Contemporaneously, the elderly workers are expected to rise. This paper studies the quantitative role of old workers in the aging economy. I construct a general equilibrium of overlapping generation model with heterogeneous agents. The distinctive feature of my model is to incorporate health mapped into survival probability, medical expenditures, and individuals' preferences. The baseline model describes the United States of 2010 and then simulate the aging economy (Year 2050). In the aging economy, population growth rate falls and health condition becomes better arising from higher survival probability. The main findings are threefold. Firstly, the number of old workers would be 1.72 times as large as the baseline economy. Yet, the government would have to impose a tax to sustain Social Security. Secondly, if old workers are absent from the labor market, the tax would be levied more heavily. Lastly, raising the normal retirement age would minimize the fiscal cost significantly if the elderlies are allowed to work, which would lead to the welfare gain. However, this importance of old workers would not stand out if better health condition is ignored.